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Cremonese crestCremonese
v
Benevento crestBenevento

Serie B | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00

Cremonese v Benevento Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benevento arrives in strong form, positioned fifth in Serie B with 15 points, contrasting with Cremonese's 15th place and 9 points. Benevento's recent performances show a more potent attack and tighter defense, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, compared to Cremonese's 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. This fixture presents a tactical challenge for Cremonese, who have struggled to convert chances, while Benevento's offensive efficiency and defensive solidity suggest they can control the match and secure a valuable away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Benevento to Win

  • Benevento ranks 5th with 15 points; Cremonese is 15th with 9 points.
  • Benevento averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, showing offensive and defensive strength.
  • Cremonese scores only 0.6 goals per game, indicating attacking struggles.
  • Benevento averages 17.6 shots and 5.6 shots on target per game, reflecting offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.83, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Benevento to win with a 70% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and stronger defensive record. Benevento's offensive players generate significantly more shots and shots on target, indicating sustained pressure and scoring opportunities. Cremonese's low scoring and limited shot creation highlight their difficulties breaking down defenses. The price at 2.7 offers positive value given the 70% , making Benevento a compelling selection for this fixture.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Benevento Goals For per Game1.8
Strong positive
Cremonese Goals For per Game0.6
Negative
Benevento Shots per Game17.6
Strong positive
Cremonese Shots per Game10
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Benevento's consistent form and attacking efficiency make them the clear choice to win this match. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Cremonese's struggles in front of goal, suggesting Benevento can secure a valuable away victory in this Serie B clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Benevento's offensive firepower and defensive resilience set them apart in this fixture, making them the logical pick to claim three points against a struggling Cremonese side.”

Key Data Signals

Benevento to Win evidence

Benevento ranks 5th with 15 points; Cremonese is 15th with 9 points.

Benevento averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, showing offensive and defensive strength.

Cremonese scores only 0.6 goals per game, indicating attacking struggles.

Benevento averages 17.6 shots and 5.6 shots on target per game, reflecting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Benevento to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.83, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend.
  • However, Benevento's recent matches show a 40% Over 2.5 rate, indicating potential for a more open game with multiple goals, especially given their attacking prowess.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cremonese0.6
Avg goals scored
Benevento1.8
Cremonese0.8
Avg goals conceded
Benevento0.6
Cremonese20%
BTTS rate
Benevento40%
Cremonese20%
Over 2.5 goals
Benevento40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Goal trends indicate Benevento's matches have a higher likelihood of goals, with a 40% Over 2.5 and BTTS rate compared to Cremonese's 20%. The average head-to-head goals of 1.83 suggest moderate scoring, but Benevento's offensive output supports a scenario with goals from the away side.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Benevento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 52% for Benevento to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Benevento have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Cremonese.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cremonese

WLLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
27 Oct 2026A Mantova2-0
24 Oct 2026H Juve Stabia0-1
17 Oct 2026A Pisa1-3
10 Oct 2026A Arezzo0-0
19 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella0-0

Benevento

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 2L
27 Oct 2026H Catanzaro1-1
24 Oct 2026A Arezzo3-0
17 Oct 2026H Vicenza Virtus2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cesena2-0
19 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Benevento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Benevento's recent form shows 11 points gained with a strong goal difference, contrasting with Cremonese's 5 points and lower scoring rate. Benevento's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity underpins their winning momentum, while Cremonese's struggles to score and defend consistently have hampered their results.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Cremonese Over 2.5
40%Benevento Over 2.5
1.83H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.83, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend. However, Benevento's recent matches show a 40% Over 2.5 rate, indicating potential for a more open game with multiple goals, especially given their attacking prowess.

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