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Cracovia Krakow crestCracovia Krakow
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Legia Warszawa crestLegia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa | Sat 17 Oct, 19:15

Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa clash features Cracovia Krakow hosting Legia Warszawa, with Legia currently third in the table and Cracovia sitting 11th. Legia arrives in strong form, having collected 11 points recently compared to Cracovia's 3, showcasing a more potent attack and tighter defense. Legia's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and efficient finishing, while Cracovia has struggled defensively and relies on high-tempo pressing. The stakes are significant as Legia aims to consolidate their top-three position, making this a key test of Cracovia's resilience at home under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Legia Warszawa to Win

  • Legia Warszawa holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.45 .
  • Legia's recent form shows 11 points gained versus Cracovia's 3, indicating momentum advantage.
  • Both teams average similar corner counts, but Legia creates more shots on target per game.
  • Cracovia concedes twice as many goals per match as Legia, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Key players like R. Adamski for Legia and M. Berte for Cracovia are crucial attacking outlets.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Legia Warszawa's win probability stands at 70%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 40.8%, indicating strong value. Their superior recent form, better defensive record, and efficient attack underpin this . Cracovia's defensive frailties and lower points tally further tilt the balance. The model benefits from comprehensive player-level data, including R. Adamski's goal threat and Legia's balanced shot creation. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsLegia 11 vs Cracovia 3
Strong positive
Defensive RecordLegia concedes 1 goal/game, Cracovia 2
Strong positive
Player Goal ThreatR. Adamski 0.8 goals/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Legia Warszawa's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their ability to control tempo and capitalize on chances, combined with Cracovia's defensive lapses, underpins this selection. The data supports Legia's consistent goal threat and defensive solidity as key factors for success.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view

“Legia Warszawa's balanced attack and solid defensive structure position them well to exploit Cracovia's vulnerabilities, especially given their recent momentum and key players like Adamski stepping up.”

Key Data Signals

Legia Warszawa to Win evidence

Legia Warszawa holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.45 .

Legia's recent form shows 11 points gained versus Cracovia's 3, indicating momentum advantage.

Both teams average similar corner counts, but Legia creates more shots on target per game.

Cracovia concedes twice as many goals per match as Legia, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

Legia Warszawa to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Cracovia's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests an open style, while Legia's more conservative 40% rate points to controlled attacking.
  • This mix suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities but also tactical discipline from Legia.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cracovia Krakow1.4
Avg goals scored
Legia Warszawa2
Cracovia Krakow2
Avg goals conceded
Legia Warszawa1
Cracovia Krakow80%
BTTS rate
Legia Warszawa80%
Cracovia Krakow80%
Over 2.5 goals
Legia Warszawa40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, with Cracovia's games frequently exceeding 2.5 goals (80%) and Legia's at 40%. This suggests a match prone to goals from both sides, driven by Cracovia's defensive openness and Legia's attacking efficiency, indicating potential for an open, goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 55.8% for Legia Warszawa to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Legia Warszawa have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 3 for Cracovia Krakow.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cracovia Krakow

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Zaglebie Lubin3-1
19 Sep 2026A GKS Katowice2-3
13 Sep 2026A Wisla Plock1-3
06 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze0-1
29 Aug 2026A Radomiak Radom1-2

Legia Warszawa

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
11 Oct 2026H Wisla Krakow2-0
20 Sep 2026A Jagiellonia3-1
13 Sep 2026H Widzew Łódź1-1
05 Sep 2026A Motor Lublin3-2
28 Aug 2026H Slask Wroclaw1-1
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Legia Warszawa's recent form is markedly superior, securing 11 points compared to Cracovia's 3 in recent matches. This momentum reflects in their sharper attack and more resilient defense, suggesting they are better prepared to control the match tempo and capitalize on scoring chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Cracovia Krakow Over 2.5
40%Legia Warszawa Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Cracovia's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests an open style, while Legia's more conservative 40% rate points to controlled attacking. This mix suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities but also tactical discipline from Legia.

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