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Coritiba crestCoritiba
v
Bahia crestBahia

Serie A | Tue 26 May, 00:00

Coritiba v Bahia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 25 May 2026, 04:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Coritiba face Bahia in Serie A on Tue 26 May, 00:00. Coritiba come in with 7 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Bahia have 3 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Coritiba to Win

  • At 2.62, Coritiba Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • Coritiba have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bahia.
  • Coritiba have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Coritiba Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Coritiba sit 7 in the table, while Bahia sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Coritiba Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Coritiba have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bahia.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
Coritiba have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Coritiba have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Coritiba Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Coritiba have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bahia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Coritiba Win evidence

Coritiba have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bahia.

Coritiba have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Coritiba Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Coritiba sit 7 in the table, while Bahia sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Coritiba Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Coritiba2.8
    Avg corners for
    Bahia5.8
    Coritiba8
    Avg total corners
    Bahia12.4
    Coritiba1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Bahia2.6
    Coritiba7.8
    Avg shots
    Bahia15.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3.1 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Coritiba1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Bahia1.2
    Coritiba1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Bahia1.8
    Coritiba40%
    BTTS rate
    Bahia80%
    Coritiba60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bahia60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 57% · edge +16.2 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 75%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCoritiba to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 38% · edge +26.6 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Coritiba to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Coritiba

    WDLLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    17 May 2026A Santos3-0
    09 May 2026H Internacional2-2
    02 May 2026A Vitoria1-4
    26 Apr 2026A Gremio0-1
    19 Apr 2026H Atletico-MG2-0

    Bahia

    DLDDL
    Last 50W 3D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    17 May 2026H Gremio1-1
    10 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-2
    03 May 2026A Sao Paulo2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Santos2-2
    19 Apr 2026A Flamengo0-2
    Market aligned with main pickCoritiba to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 38% · edge +26.6 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Coritiba wins
    5Draws
    4Bahia wins
    15 Sep 2023Coritiba v Bahia2-4
    07 May 2023Bahia v Coritiba3-1
    16 Nov 2020Coritiba v Bahia1-2
    13 Aug 2020Bahia v Coritiba1-0
    30 Sep 2017Bahia v Coritiba1-1
    15 Jun 2017Coritiba v Bahia0-0
    Market aligned with main pickCoritiba to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 38% · edge +26.6 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Coritiba to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Coritiba18
    Played
    Bahia17
    Coritiba1.3
    Avg goals for
    Bahia1.5
    Coritiba1.3
    Avg goals against
    Bahia1.4
    Coritiba5
    Clean sheets
    Bahia4
    Market aligned with main pickCoritiba to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 38% · edge +26.6 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Coritiba to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Bahia26177552
    7Coritiba26187560
    Coritiba sit in position 7, while Bahia sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Coritiba Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Coritiba Over 2.5
    60%Bahia Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Coritiba sit at 60% and Bahia sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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