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Corinthians crestCorinthians
v
Rosario Central crestRosario Central

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Fri 21 Aug, 01:30

Corinthians v Rosario Central Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Corinthians face Rosario Central in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Fri 21 Aug, 01:30. Corinthians' limited attacking output, shown by only five shots and one on target in the first leg, combined with Rosario Central's strong defensive record conceding just 19 goals in 21 league matches, supports a low-scoring match outcome.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2

  • At 1.33, Under 2 implies roughly 75%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Top scorer Yuri Alberto injured alongside 4 creative absences, yielding only 1 shot on target in leg 1.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Corinthians and 40% for Rosario Central, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Rosario Central are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Corinthians at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Corinthians and 0% for Rosario Central show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 75% while the model sits nearer 66% (-9.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Rosario Central Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 66% for Under 2 sits against roughly 75% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Corinthians and 40% for Rosario Central, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Top scorer Yuri Alberto injured alongside 4 creative absences, yielding only 1 shot on target in leg 1.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 75% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Corinthians and 40%.Visible data support
Positive
Rosario Central are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Top scorer Yuri Alberto injured alongside 4 creative absences.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Under 2.5 Goals. Rosario Central are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Corinthians at 0.8. Their attacking threat was minimal for long spells, and Monday's 2-1 home defeat to Cruzeiro did little to remove the concern.

Main risk

Their attacking threat was minimal for long spells, and Monday's 2-1 home defeat to Cruzeiro did little to remove the concern.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Selection: Under 2.5 Goals.

Rosario Central are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Corinthians at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 40% for Corinthians and 0% for Rosario Central show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Corinthians0.8
Avg goals scored
Rosario Central1.6
Corinthians0.8
Avg goals conceded
Rosario Central0.2
Corinthians40%
BTTS rate
Rosario Central0%
Corinthians0%
Over 2.5 goals
Rosario Central40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 75% · edge -9.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
8
Check odds @ 8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Corinthians and 40% for Rosario Central, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionRosario Central Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Rosario Central to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Rosario Central Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Corinthians

DLDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
14 Aug 2026A Rosario Central0-0
28 May 2026H Platense0-2
22 May 2026A Penarol1-1
07 May 2026A Santa Fe1-1
01 May 2026H Penarol2-0

Rosario Central

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
14 Aug 2026H Corinthians0-0
27 May 2026A Independiente del Valle0-1
19 May 2026H UCV4-0
05 May 2026H Libertad Asuncion1-0
29 Apr 2026A UCV3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Rosario Central Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Rosario Central to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Corinthians to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Corinthians Over 2.5
40%Rosario Central Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Corinthians sit at 0% and Rosario Central sit at 40% with the H2H average at 0 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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