Football Stats Hub

Corinthians crestCorinthians
v
Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

Serie A | Sun 24 May, 22:30

Corinthians v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 09:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Corinthians face Atletico-MG in Serie A on Sun 24 May, 22:30. Corinthians come in with 7 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Atletico-MG have 7 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 2.38, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • Corinthians have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Atletico-MG sit at 1.8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Corinthians have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Atletico-MG sit at 1.8.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Corinthians have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Atletico-MG.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +22 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Corinthians have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Atletico-MG sit at 1.8. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Corinthians have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Atletico-MG sit at 1.8.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Corinthians4.2
Avg corners for
Atletico-MG5.6
Corinthians8.6
Avg total corners
Atletico-MG9.2
Corinthians2.2
Avg yellow cards
Atletico-MG1.8
Corinthians13
Avg shots
Atletico-MG15.8
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 42% · edge +22 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Corinthians1.2
Avg goals scored
Atletico-MG1.4
Corinthians1.4
Avg goals conceded
Atletico-MG1.8
Corinthians60%
BTTS rate
Atletico-MG60%
Corinthians60%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 48% · edge +22.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 42% · edge +22 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
5
Check odds @ 5
Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Corinthians

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
17 May 2026A Botafogo1-3
10 May 2026H Sao Paulo3-2
04 May 2026A Mirassol1-2
26 Apr 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
19 Apr 2026A Vitoria0-0

Atletico-MG

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
16 May 2026H Mirassol3-1
10 May 2026H Botafogo1-1
03 May 2026A Cruzeiro3-1
27 Apr 2026H Flamengo0-4
19 Apr 2026A Coritiba0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 50% · edge +20 pts
1.99
Check odds @ 1.99
Load more odds for this section
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
5
Check odds @ 5
Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Corinthians to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Corinthians wins
3Draws
3Atletico-MG wins
18 Oct 2025Corinthians v Atletico-MG1-0
25 May 2025Atletico-MG v Corinthians0-0
28 Jul 2024Atletico-MG v Corinthians2-1
14 Apr 2024Corinthians v Atletico-MG0-0
09 Nov 2023Corinthians v Atletico-MG1-1
08 Jul 2023Atletico-MG v Corinthians0-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 48% · edge +22.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Corinthians to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Corinthians18
Played
Atletico-MG18
Corinthians1
Avg goals for
Atletico-MG1.2
Corinthians1.1
Avg goals against
Atletico-MG1.3
Corinthians7
Clean sheets
Atletico-MG4
Best odds for this sectionAtletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 20% · edge +20.5 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Corinthians to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports Atletico-MG to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Atletico-MG2418738-1
10Corinthians2418666-1
Corinthians sit in position 10, while Atletico-MG sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Corinthians Over 2.5
60%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Corinthians sit at 60% and Atletico-MG sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Browse football stats pages

Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubmore Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre