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Cordoba crestCordoba
v
AD Ceuta FC crestAD Ceuta FC

Segunda División | Sat 07 Nov, 17:30

Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Cordoba hosting AD Ceuta FC in a fixture where the away side seeks to improve on a difficult start to the season. Cordoba sits mid-table with a more stable recent form, while AD Ceuta FC struggles near the bottom, yet their resilience and tactical adjustments under pressure suggest they can avoid defeat. Both teams have shown tendencies for open play, with moderate goal involvement and defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a contest where AD Ceuta FC's cautious approach and counter-attacking threat could secure at least a draw.

BT4Y best bet

AD Ceuta FC Draw No Bet

  • AD Ceuta FC offers 13% on Draw No Bet at 3.45
  • Cordoba has stronger recent form but AD Ceuta FC’s defensive resilience is notable
  • Both teams have 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games
  • AD Ceuta FC’s Jordi Escobar is a key attacking threat with 0.58 goals per 90
  • Sanchez is a prolific shooter with 2.05 shots on target per 90

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors AD Ceuta FC on Draw No Bet due to a 42% chance of avoiding defeat, significantly higher than the 29% implied by current , indicating strong value. Despite AD Ceuta FC’s low points tally, their defensive solidity and ability to create chances through players like Jordi Escobar and U. Konare support this view. Cordoba’s attacking output is higher but their defensive lapses balance the contest. The model at 56% reflects moderate certainty, with no data limitations affecting the analysis.

Model Chance vs Implied Chance42% model chance vs 29% implied (+13 pts)
Strong positive
AD Ceuta FC Defensive Resilience2 goals conceded per game
Positive
Cordoba Attacking Output1.8 goals per game
Neutral
Key Player InfluenceJordi Escobar and U. Konare attacking roles
Positive
Recent Form DisparityCordoba stronger but AD Ceuta FC competitive
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AD Ceuta FC’s tactical discipline and key attacking players like Jordi Escobar provide a solid foundation to avoid defeat despite their league position. Cordoba’s stronger form and home presence make this a close contest, but AD Ceuta FC’s resilience and counter-attacking threat justify backing them on Draw No Bet for a cautious yet value-driven approach.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical resilience and value pricing

“AD Ceuta FC’s ability to absorb pressure and exploit transitions through Jordi Escobar and U. Konare makes the Draw No Bet a compelling option, especially given the value at current against a Cordoba side that concedes regularly.”

Key Data Signals

AD Ceuta FC Draw No Bet evidence

AD Ceuta FC offers 13% on Draw No Bet at 3.45

Cordoba has stronger recent form but AD Ceuta FC’s defensive resilience is notable

Both teams have 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games

AD Ceuta FC’s Jordi Escobar is a key attacking threat with 0.58 goals per 90

What To Watch In The Data

AD Ceuta FC Draw No Bet notes

  • The last eight meetings have averaged 3.13 goals per game, indicating a tendency for matches with multiple goals.
  • Both teams’ recent Over 2.5 Goals rates at 60% reinforce this trend, suggesting a lively tempo with chances at both ends.
  • This trend supports an open game scenario where AD Ceuta FC can capitalize on transitions and set pieces to avoid defeat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cordoba1.8
Avg goals scored
AD Ceuta FC0.8
Cordoba1.2
Avg goals conceded
AD Ceuta FC2
Cordoba60%
BTTS rate
AD Ceuta FC80%
Cordoba60%
Over 2.5 goals
AD Ceuta FC60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a propensity for open and attacking matches. AD Ceuta FC’s 80% BTTS rate suggests they often concede but also score, while Cordoba’s 60% BTTS rate supports the likelihood of goals at both ends, pointing to a game with multiple scoring chances and goal involvement from both sides.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAD Ceuta FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
AD Ceuta FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 42% for AD Ceuta FC Draw No Bet sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price (+13 pts). Cordoba have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for AD Ceuta FC.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cordoba

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Celta de Vigo II2-2
24 Oct 2026H Eibar2-0
16 Oct 2026A Leganes1-0
10 Oct 2026A Eldense1-2
05 Oct 2026H Tenerife3-2

AD Ceuta FC

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
01 Nov 2026H Sporting Gijon0-2
25 Oct 2026A Cadiz1-3
18 Oct 2026H Oviedo1-2
10 Oct 2026H Sabadell1-2
04 Oct 2026A Castellón1-1
Market aligned with main pickAD Ceuta FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
AD Ceuta FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Cordoba’s recent form is stronger with 10 points compared to AD Ceuta FC’s 1 point in the same period, reflecting better consistency and attacking output (1.8 goals per game). However, AD Ceuta FC’s resilience and ability to create chances despite poor results suggest they can frustrate Cordoba and avoid defeat, aligning with the Draw No Bet selection as a cautious approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cordoba Over 2.5
60%AD Ceuta FC Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
The last eight meetings have averaged 3.13 goals per game, indicating a tendency for matches with multiple goals. Both teams’ recent Over 2.5 Goals rates at 60% reinforce this trend, suggesting a lively tempo with chances at both ends. This trend supports an open game scenario where AD Ceuta FC can capitalize on transitions and set pieces to avoid defeat.

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