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Coquimbo Unido crestCoquimbo Unido
v
Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Tue 19 May, 23:00

Coquimbo Unido v Deportes Tolima Stats

Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 17:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Coquimbo Unido face Deportes Tolima in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Tue 19 May, 23:00. Coquimbo Unido come in with 7 recent points and 1.25 goals per match, while Deportes Tolima have 10 points and 1.8 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Deportes Tolima to Win

  • At 3.4, Deportes Tolima Win implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • Deportes Tolima have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coquimbo Unido.
  • Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Deportes Tolima Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 61% for Deportes Tolima Win sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Deportes Tolima have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coquimbo Unido.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Strong positive
Deportes Tolima have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Deportes Tolima Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Deportes Tolima have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coquimbo Unido. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Deportes Tolima Win evidence

Deportes Tolima have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coquimbo Unido.

Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Deportes Tolima Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Deportes Tolima Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Coquimbo Unido6.5
    Avg corners for
    Deportes Tolima4.4
    Coquimbo Unido11
    Avg total corners
    Deportes Tolima9
    Coquimbo Unido1.75
    Avg yellow cards
    Deportes Tolima2.6
    Coquimbo Unido10
    Avg shots
    Deportes Tolima12.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Coquimbo Unido1.25
    Avg goals scored
    Deportes Tolima1.8
    Coquimbo Unido1.25
    Avg goals conceded
    Deportes Tolima0.6
    Coquimbo Unido50%
    BTTS rate
    Deportes Tolima20%
    Coquimbo Unido50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Deportes Tolima60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 47% · edge +8 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDeportes Tolima to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 29% · edge +31.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Deportes Tolima to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Coquimbo Unido

    WLWD
    Last 52W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 1L
    08 May 2026H Universitario2-1
    29 Apr 2026A Deportes Tolima0-3
    15 Apr 2026A Universitario2-0
    08 Apr 2026H Club Nacional1-1

    Deportes Tolima

    WWLDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 3L
    07 May 2026H Club Nacional3-0
    29 Apr 2026H Coquimbo Unido3-0
    14 Apr 2026A Club Nacional1-3
    08 Apr 2026H Universitario0-0
    12 Mar 2026H O'Higgins2-0
    Market aligned with main pickDeportes Tolima to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 29% · edge +31.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Coquimbo Unido wins
    0Draws
    1Deportes Tolima wins
    29 Apr 2026Deportes Tolima v Coquimbo Unido3-0
    Market aligned with main pickDeportes Tolima to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 29% · edge +31.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Deportes Tolima to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Coquimbo Unido6
    Played
    Deportes Tolima10
    Coquimbo Unido1.3
    Avg goals for
    Deportes Tolima1.1
    Coquimbo Unido1
    Avg goals against
    Deportes Tolima0.8
    Coquimbo Unido2
    Clean sheets
    Deportes Tolima6
    Market aligned with main pickDeportes Tolima to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 29% · edge +31.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Season data supports Deportes Tolima to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Coquimbo Unido1063122
    2Deportes Tolima862221
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Coquimbo Unido Over 2.5
    60%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Coquimbo Unido sit at 50% and Deportes Tolima sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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