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Colombia crestColombia
v
Ghana crestGhana

World Cup | Sat 04 Jul, 02:30

Colombia v Ghana Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 20:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Colombia face Ghana in World Cup on Sat 04 Jul, 02:30. Colombia topped Group K with seven points, scoring four goals and conceding just once. Defensively, they kept four consecutive home clean sheets. Colombia's superior control should secure the victory.

BT4Y match pick

Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play

  • At 1/2, Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play implies roughly 67%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
  • Their wider nine-match numbers show defensive strength too, with only three goals conceded at an average of 0.33 per game and seven clean sheets.
  • Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ghana.
  • Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play angle more than a raw possession.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play sits against roughly 67% implied by the current price. Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ghana. Their wider nine-match numbers show defensive strength too, with only three goals conceded at an average of 0.33 per game and seven clean sheets.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 67% implied
Negative
Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Their wider nine-match numbers show defensive strength too.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Colombia Win is the preferred angle because their wider nine-match numbers show defensive strength too, with only three goals conceded at an average of 0.33 per game and seven clean sheets. Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ghana. Ghana have scored only two goals in the tournament and average that scoring level per game at the World Cup, but they have also kept seven clean sheets across their last nine matches.

Main risk

Ghana have scored only two goals in the tournament and average 0.67 goals per game at the World Cup, but they have also kept seven clean sheets across their last nine matches.

Key Data Signals

Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play evidence

Their wider nine-match numbers show defensive strength too, with only three goals conceded at an average of 0.

Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ghana.

Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Colombia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Relies on Ghana's low attacking creation alongside Colombia's rigid defensive form during tournament play notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Colombia5
    Avg corners for
    Ghana2
    Colombia8
    Avg total corners
    Ghana4.5
    Colombia1.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Ghana1
    Colombia22
    Avg shots
    Ghana7
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Colombia1.33
    Avg goals scored
    Ghana0.67
    Colombia0.33
    Avg goals conceded
    Ghana0.67
    Colombia33%
    BTTS rate
    Ghana33%
    Colombia33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Ghana33%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 38%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 70% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 38%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Colombia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Colombia to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Colombia

    DWW
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    28 Jun 2026H Portugal0-0
    24 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-0
    18 Jun 2026A Uzbekistan3-1

    Ghana

    LDW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    27 Jun 2026A Croatia1-2
    23 Jun 2026A England0-0
    18 Jun 2026H Panama1-0
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 70% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Colombia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Colombia wins
    0Draws
    0Ghana wins
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 70% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 38%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Colombia to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Colombia5
    Played
    Ghana4
    Colombia1
    Avg goals for
    Ghana0.5
    Colombia0.2
    Avg goals against
    Ghana0.8
    Colombia4
    Clean sheets
    Ghana2
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 70% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Colombia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Season data supports Colombia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Colombia732103
    3Ghana431110
    3Ghana431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Colombia Over 2.5
    33%Ghana Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Colombia sit at 33% and Ghana sit at 33%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.