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Club Nacional crestClub Nacional
v
Tigre crestTigre

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Tue 21 Jul, 23:00

Club Nacional v Tigre Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 05:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Club Nacional face Tigre in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Tue 21 Jul, 23:00. Nacional have conceded only once in their last three continental home gamesTwo wins, one draw and two clean sheets underline how difficult Nacional have been to break down at Gran Parque Central in continental competition.

BT4Y match pick

Correct Score - Nacional 1-0

  • At 2.25, Correct Score - Nacional 1-0 implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • Nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test of Nerve in Montevideo.
  • Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for Club Nacional.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Correct Score - Nacional 1-0 sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for Club Nacional. Nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test of Nerve in Montevideo.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Negative
Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Club Nacional Win is the preferred angle because nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test of Nerve in Montevideo. Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for Club Nacional. Their defence may keep the tie close, but they still need a reliable route to goal if they are to punish Nacional.

Main risk

Their defence may keep the tie close, but they still need a reliable route to goal if they are to punish Nacional.

Key Data Signals

Correct Score - Nacional 1-0 evidence

Nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test of Nerve in Montevideo.

Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for Club Nacional.

What To Watch In The Data

Correct Score - Nacional 1-0 notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickClub Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -4.1 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Club Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Club Nacional to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Club Nacional-
    Avg goals scored
    Tigre1.4
    Club Nacional-
    Avg goals conceded
    Tigre0.8
    Club Nacional-
    BTTS rate
    Tigre40%
    Club Nacional-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Tigre20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Club Nacional

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Club Nacional yet.

    Tigre

    WDDWL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 1L
    29 May 2026H Alianza Atletico2-0
    20 May 2026A America de Cali1-1
    07 May 2026A Macara2-2
    01 May 2026H America de Cali2-0
    16 Apr 2026H Macara0-1
    Market aligned with main pickClub Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -4.1 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Club Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Club Nacional Over 2.5
    20%Tigre Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    Nacional vs Tigre: Home Strength Meets a Serious Test of Nerve in Montevideo.

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