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Club Brugge KV crestClub Brugge KV
v
Lens crestLens

UEFA Champions League | Wed 21 Oct, 20:00

Club Brugge KV v Lens Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 01:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Club Brugge KV face Lens in UEFA Champions League on Wed 21 Oct, 20:00. Club Brugge KV come in with 3 recent points and 3 goals per match, while Lens have 3 points and 1.5 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • At 2.1, Over 4.5 Cards implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Club Brugge KV have the higher yellow-card average at 3.5, while Lens sit at 1.5.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Club Brugge KV have the higher yellow-card average at 3.5, while Lens sit at 1.5.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Club Brugge KV have the higher yellow-card average at 3.5.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 4.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Club Brugge KV have the higher yellow-card average at 3.5, while Lens sit at 1.5. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Club Brugge KV have the higher yellow-card average at 3.5, while Lens sit at 1.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Club Brugge KV3
Avg goals scored
Lens1.5
Club Brugge KV3
Avg goals conceded
Lens2
Club Brugge KV100%
BTTS rate
Lens50%
Club Brugge KV100%
Over 2.5 goals
Lens50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for Club Brugge KV and 50% for Lens, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +8.8 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Club Brugge KV Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Lens Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Club Brugge KV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Club Brugge KV

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
13 Oct 2026A Inter4-3
08 Sep 2026H Aston Villa2-3

Lens

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
13 Oct 2026H Sporting CP0-2
10 Sep 2026A Slavia Praha3-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 75% · edge -4.3 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Club Brugge KV Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Lens Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Club Brugge KV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lens to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Club Brugge KV Over 2.5
50%Lens Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Club Brugge KV sit at 100% and Lens sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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