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Chesterfield crestChesterfield
v
Port Vale crestPort Vale

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Chesterfield v Port Vale Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chesterfield and Port Vale meet in the EFL Trophy with both sides aiming to progress in this knockout competition. Chesterfield have shown attacking intent early in the season, scoring five goals in their last three matches and maintaining a 100% rate for games exceeding 2.5 goals. Port Vale's recent data is limited, but their attacking players like O. Lynch demonstrate high shot volumes, suggesting offensive ambition. The fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with Chesterfield's offensive momentum contrasting with Port Vale's less defined defensive record, adding intrigue to this encounter.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 63%, above the 52% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Chesterfield have scored 5 goals in their last 3 matches, all going over 2.5 goals.
  • Lynch averages 9.47 shots and 4.74 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Chesterfield's recent matches have 100% BTTS rate, indicating both teams score.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.5 over 10 meetings, supporting a goal-rich game.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 63% while the model sits nearer 52% (-11 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: BTTS No shows a +9.6 pts edge at 2.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied 62.5% from , indicating strong value. Chesterfield's recent matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals with a perfect record, while Port Vale's attacking players like O. Lynch generate high shot volumes, suggesting goal opportunities. Although Port Vale's data is thinner, the offensive signals and historical average goals of 2.5 in head-to-heads support a high-scoring game. The current reflect a positive , making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection with standard stake guidance.

Price / value52% model chance vs 63% implied (-11 pts)
Negative
Chesterfield recent Over 2.5 rate100% in last 3 matches
Strong positive
Port Vale attacking shot volumeO. Lynch 9.47 shots/90
Positive
H2H average goals2.5 goals per game over 10 matches
Positive
Data qualityLimited Port Vale data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open match with Chesterfield's attacking form and Port Vale's active shooters driving goal chances. Chesterfield's consistent scoring and Port Vale's offensive intent suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a strong tactical and statistical call for this EFL Trophy fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Chesterfield's attacking momentum combined with Port Vale's high shot rates creates a fertile environment for goals, making Over 2.5 a well-supported choice in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Chesterfield have scored 5 goals in their last 3 matches, all going over 2.5 goals.

Lynch averages 9.47 shots and 4.74 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Chesterfield's recent matches have 100% BTTS rate, indicating both teams score.

H2H average goals stand at 2.5 over 10 meetings, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 2.5 goals per game, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches involving Chesterfield show a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a trend towards open play and goal opportunities.
  • These trends support the expectation of a lively, goal-rich fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Chesterfield wins
1Draws
5Port Vale wins
25 Jan 2025Chesterfield v Port Vale1-1
14 Sep 2024Port Vale v Chesterfield1-0
31 Jul 2021Chesterfield v Port Vale0-1
30 Mar 2018Port Vale v Chesterfield2-1
19 Aug 2017Chesterfield v Port Vale2-0
08 Apr 2017Chesterfield v Port Vale1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 63% · edge -11 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Port Vale to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 10 previous meetings between Chesterfield and Port Vale have averaged 2.5 goals per game, providing a solid historical foundation for expecting multiple goals. While not overwhelmingly high, this average combined with Chesterfield's recent attacking form and Port Vale's shot volume suggests the head-to-head record moderately supports an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chesterfield

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Chesterfield yet.

Port Vale

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Port Vale yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 69% · edge -3.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Chesterfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Chesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Port Vale Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Port Vale to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Chesterfield's recent form shows a strong attacking output with 5 goals scored and all matches surpassing 2.5 goals, reflecting an aggressive style and defensive openness. Port Vale's recent form data is limited, but their offensive players' shot volumes suggest intent to challenge defenses. This contrast in form and attacking metrics supports the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chesterfield-
Avg goals scored
Port Vale-
Chesterfield-
Avg goals conceded
Port Vale-
Chesterfield-
BTTS rate
Port Vale-
Chesterfield-
Over 2.5 goals
Port Vale-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 63% · edge -11 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Chesterfield's last three matches all exceeded 2.5 goals and featured both teams scoring, highlighting an open style with defensive vulnerabilities. Port Vale's attacking players, particularly O. Lynch, contribute high shot volumes, increasing goal opportunities. The historical average of 2.5 goals per game in their head-to-heads further supports expectations of multiple goals and BTTS possibilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 63% · edge -11 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Chesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Port Vale Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Port Vale to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with implying a 62.5% chance, while the model estimates a 78% probability, indicating clear value. This gap suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, supported by Chesterfield's recent goal-rich matches and Port Vale's offensive shot volumes. The price is positive value rather than a watch-only angle, encouraging a standard stake approach.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

EFL Trophy

Chesterfield1
Played
Port Vale0
Chesterfield5
Avg goals for
Port Vale-
Chesterfield3
Avg goals against
Port Vale-
Chesterfield0
Clean sheets
Port Vale-
Best odds for this sectionChesterfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 58% · edge -7.7 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Port Vale Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Port Vale to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Chesterfield's season statistics reveal a potent attack averaging 10 shots and 5 on target per game, with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently. Port Vale's thinner data limits season-long analysis, but individual player shooting stats indicate offensive capabilities. These season trends align with expectations for multiple goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Chesterfield Over 2.5
-Port Vale Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 2.5 goals per game, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring encounters. Recent matches involving Chesterfield show a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a trend towards open play and goal opportunities. These trends support the expectation of a lively, goal-rich fixture.

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Fixture links

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