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Chelsea crestChelsea
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

Premier League | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Chelsea v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 22:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chelsea face Bournemouth in Premier League on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00. Chelsea vs Bournemouth Preview: Alonso Seeks Stamford Bridge Response as Cherries Chase First League Win. Bournemouth's ability to score twice in recent draws and Tavernier's form add credibility to this exact scoreline, reinforced by historical Stamford Bridge results.

BT4Y best bet

Wins only if both sides score exactly twice

  • At 1.53, Wins only if both sides score exactly twice implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides must score at least once.
  • Chelsea show a 80% BTTS rate and Bournemouth show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Chelsea average 2 goals scored and Bournemouth average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Wins only if both sides score exactly twice sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Chelsea show a 80% BTTS rate and Bournemouth show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides must score at least once.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Positive
Chelsea show a 80% BTTS rate and Bournemouth show a.Visible data support
Positive
Chelsea average 2 goals scored and Bournemouth average 1.2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides must score.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides must score at least once. Chelsea show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Bournemouth show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. However, their attacking productivity has concealed significant defensive weaknesses.

Main risk

However, their attacking productivity has concealed significant defensive weaknesses.

Key Data Signals

Wins only if both sides score exactly twice evidence

Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides must score at least once.

Chelsea show a 80% BTTS rate and Bournemouth show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Chelsea average 2 goals scored and Bournemouth average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Wins only if both sides score exactly twice notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chelsea2
Avg goals scored
Bournemouth1.2
Chelsea2.4
Avg goals conceded
Bournemouth1.6
Chelsea80%
BTTS rate
Bournemouth80%
Chelsea100%
Over 2.5 goals
Bournemouth60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Chelsea to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chelsea

LDLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
18 Sep 2026A Brentford0-3
12 Sep 2026H Hull City2-2
06 Sep 2026A Arsenal1-2
30 Aug 2026H Brighton4-3
24 Aug 2026A Fulham3-2

Bournemouth

LDDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 2L
20 Sep 2026H Liverpool0-1
12 Sep 2026H Brentford2-2
05 Sep 2026A Newcastle2-2
29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1
23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 85% · edge +1.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Chelsea to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Bournemouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Chelsea Over 2.5
60%Bournemouth Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Chelsea sit at 100% and Bournemouth sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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