Football Stats Hub

Cesena crestCesena
v
Avellino crestAvellino

Serie B | Sun 18 Oct, 16:15

Cesena v Avellino Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Avellino visiting Cesena in a contest where Avellino's recent form and offensive output stand out. Avellino have collected 10 points with a solid defensive record, conceding just one goal per game on average, while scoring twice per match. Cesena, positioned lower in the table, have struggled to find the net consistently and have conceded more frequently. Avellino's ability to control midfield and create chances, combined with Cesena's defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for an away win in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Avellino to Win

  • Avellino leads with 10 points compared to Cesena's 6 in recent form.
  • Avellino averages 2 goals per game, showing stronger attacking efficiency.
  • Cesena concedes 1.4 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Avellino's BTTS rate is 60%, suggesting balanced attacking and defending.
  • Avellino ranks 6th in the league, ahead of Cesena's 10th place.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Avellino's of 65.9% to win is supported by their superior recent form, stronger goal-scoring rate, and more efficient defense compared to Cesena. The 3.2 offer significant value given the implied chance is only 31.3%. Avellino's ability to create quality chances, led by key players like W. Russo, combined with Cesena's defensive struggles, underpins in an away victory. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the pick a solid value proposition.

Recent FormAvellino has 10 points vs Cesena's 6
Strong positive
Goal ScoringAvellino averages 2 goals per game
Strong positive
DefenseAvellino concedes 1 goal per game, Cesena 1.4
Positive
Market Value Edge46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Player ImpactCheddira and Russo show strong attacking stats
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Avellino's superior attacking efficiency and disciplined defense provide a tactical edge over Cesena, who have struggled to convert chances. The data-driven outlook favors Avellino's win given their consistent recent performances and ability to control midfield, making them the likely victors in this Serie B encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Avellino's balanced attack and solid defensive shape create a compelling case for their victory, especially given Cesena's defensive inconsistencies and lower scoring output.”

Key Data Signals

Avellino to Win evidence

Avellino leads with 10 points compared to Cesena's 6 in recent form.

Avellino averages 2 goals per game, showing stronger attacking efficiency.

Cesena concedes 1.4 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.

Avellino's BTTS rate is 60%, suggesting balanced attacking and defending.

What To Watch In The Data

Avellino to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a relatively open and attacking fixture history.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Cesena 40%, Avellino 60%) suggest a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring game, influenced by Avellino's offensive strength and Cesena's defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cesena1.2
Avg goals scored
Avellino2
Cesena1.4
Avg goals conceded
Avellino1
Cesena80%
BTTS rate
Avellino60%
Cesena40%
Over 2.5 goals
Avellino60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with Cesena's BTTS rate at 80% and Avellino's at 60%. Avellino's higher average goals per game (2) compared to Cesena's 1.2 suggests a match likely to feature goals from the visitors, while Cesena's defensive frailty supports the possibility of multiple goals overall.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAvellino to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Avellino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 46.3% for Avellino to Win sits against roughly 31.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Avellino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Cesena.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cesena

LDDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 1L
10 Oct 2026A Benevento0-2
18 Sep 2026A Juve Stabia1-1
12 Sep 2026H Cremonese2-2
06 Sep 2026H Mantova1-1
29 Aug 2026A Virtus Entella2-1

Avellino

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
09 Oct 2026H Sampdoria4-1
19 Sep 2026A Ascoli1-3
13 Sep 2026H Palermo1-1
06 Sep 2026A Modena1-0
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
Market aligned with main pickAvellino to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Avellino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Avellino's recent form shows 10 points gained with a strong defensive record of conceding only one goal per game, compared to Cesena's 6 points and higher goals conceded. This form disparity reflects Avellino's momentum and defensive solidity, reinforcing in their ability to secure a win away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cesena Over 2.5
60%Avellino Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a relatively open and attacking fixture history. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Cesena 40%, Avellino 60%) suggest a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring game, influenced by Avellino's offensive strength and Cesena's defensive lapses.

Loading deeper match data…