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Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
v
Sevilla crestSevilla

La Liga | Sat 23 May, 20:00

Celta Vigo v Sevilla Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 06:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celta Vigo face Sevilla in La Liga on Sat 23 May, 20:00. Celta Vigo must win to secure a Europa League place, forcing an aggressive approach at home. Five wins, five draws and eight defeats is not the profile of a side comfortably cruising towards Europe.

BT4Y best bet

Celta Vigo Win

  • At 13/5, Celta Vigo Win implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • Celta Vigo routinely score at least twice at home but struggle to maintain clean sheets.
  • Sevilla have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Celta Vigo.
  • Sevilla have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Celta Vigo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Celta Vigo sit 6 in the table, while Sevilla sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Celta Vigo Win sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Sevilla have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo routinely score at least twice at home but struggle to maintain clean sheets.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Positive
Sevilla have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Sevilla have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Celta Vigo routinely score at least twice at home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Celta Vigo Win is the preferred angle because celta Vigo routinely score at least twice at home but struggle to maintain clean sheets. Sevilla have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Celta Vigo. Their goal difference of +4 reflects a side that rarely shuts games down completely but almost always believes it can hurt opponents.

Main risk

Their goal difference of +4 reflects a side that rarely shuts games down completely but almost always believes it can hurt opponents.

Key Data Signals

Celta Vigo Win evidence

Celta Vigo routinely score at least twice at home but struggle to maintain clean sheets.

Sevilla have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Celta Vigo.

Sevilla have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Celta Vigo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Celta Vigo sit 6 in the table, while Sevilla sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Celta Vigo Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Celta Vigo2.6
    Avg corners for
    Sevilla3.8
    Celta Vigo8.2
    Avg total corners
    Sevilla8.4
    Celta Vigo2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Sevilla2.8
    Celta Vigo6.4
    Avg shots
    Sevilla15
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 48% · edge -4.5 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    La Liga fixtures and predictionsCelta Vigo v Sevilla predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Celta Vigo1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Sevilla1.4
    Celta Vigo1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Sevilla1.2
    Celta Vigo80%
    BTTS rate
    Sevilla60%
    Celta Vigo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sevilla60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCelta Vigo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 59% · edge -23.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Celta Vigo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Celta Vigo to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Celta Vigo

    DLWWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    17 May 2026A Athletic Club1-1
    12 May 2026H Levante2-3
    09 May 2026A Atletico Madrid1-0
    03 May 2026H Elche3-1
    26 Apr 2026A Villarreal1-2

    Sevilla

    LWWWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 6L
    17 May 2026H Real Madrid0-1
    13 May 2026A Villarreal3-2
    09 May 2026H Espanyol2-1
    04 May 2026H Real Sociedad1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Osasuna1-2
    Market aligned with main pickCelta Vigo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 59% · edge -23.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Celta Vigo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Celta Vigo wins
    4Draws
    3Sevilla wins
    12 Jan 2026Sevilla v Celta Vigo0-1
    10 May 2025Celta Vigo v Sevilla3-2
    14 Dec 2024Sevilla v Celta Vigo1-0
    17 Mar 2024Sevilla v Celta Vigo1-2
    04 Nov 2023Celta Vigo v Sevilla1-1
    07 Apr 2023Sevilla v Celta Vigo2-2
    Market aligned with main pickCelta Vigo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 59% · edge -23.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Celta Vigo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    La Liga

    Celta Vigo38
    Played
    Sevilla38
    Celta Vigo1.4
    Avg goals for
    Sevilla1.2
    Celta Vigo1.3
    Avg goals against
    Sevilla1.6
    Celta Vigo10
    Clean sheets
    Sevilla6
    Market aligned with main pickCelta Vigo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 59% · edge -23.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Celta Vigo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports Celta Vigo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Celta Vigo54381412125
    13Sevilla433812719-14
    Celta Vigo sit in position 6, while Sevilla sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Celta Vigo Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Celta Vigo Over 2.5
    60%Sevilla Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Celta Vigo sit at 60% and Sevilla sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Celta Vigo v Sevilla prediction

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    Betting context

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