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Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
v
Alaves crestAlaves

La Liga | Sun 18 Oct, 15:15

Celta Vigo v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celta Vigo hosts Alaves in a La Liga fixture where both teams seek consistency amid contrasting starts. Celta's recent form shows a strong defensive foundation with five unbeaten matches but limited attacking breakthroughs, highlighted by a goalless draw against Elche. Alaves, despite a promising start, have faltered recently, relying heavily on Lucas Boye's goal threat. The tactical battle is expected to revolve around Celta's possession control and defensive compactness against Alaves' counterattacking style, setting the stage for a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Eight of Celta Vigo's last ten league games featured under 3 goals.
  • Celta Vigo conceded only six goals in eight league fixtures this season.
  • Alaves scored 12 goals in their last eight matches but rely on counterattacks.
  • Goalkeeper Ionut Andrei Radu has kept five clean sheets in the last ten games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with Celta Vigo's consistent defensive solidity and low-scoring recent matches, supported by their goalkeeper's multiple clean sheets. Alaves' tendency to operate with low possession and rely on isolated counterattacks further suggests limited goal opportunities. However, the current are slightly short compared to the model's chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection rather than clear value. Reduced staking or waiting for better is advised until stronger late data or team news emerges.

Celta Vigo Defensive Record6 goals conceded in 8 matches
Strong positive
Alaves Attacking StyleLow possession, counterattack reliance
Positive
Model vs Market Odds56.4% model chance vs 59.9% implied (-3.5 pts)
Negative
Goalkeeper Clean Sheets5 clean sheets in last 10 matches
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals selection reflects Celta Vigo's defensive resilience and Alaves' counterattacking approach, which together suggest a match unlikely to produce many goals. The tactical setup and recent form data support a cautious, tight game with limited scoring chances.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical match-up

“Celta Vigo's disciplined defensive structure combined with Alaves' reliance on quick transitions creates a scenario where scoring opportunities will be scarce, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Eight of Celta Vigo's last ten league games featured under 3 goals.

Celta Vigo conceded only six goals in eight league fixtures this season.

Alaves scored 12 goals in their last eight matches but rely on counterattacks.

Goalkeeper Ionut Andrei Radu has kept five clean sheets in the last ten games.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating potential for goals historically.
  • However, recent trends and tactical setups suggest a slower tempo and fewer chances, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this specific fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celta Vigo1.4
Avg goals scored
Alaves1.4
Celta Vigo0.4
Avg goals conceded
Alaves1.4
Celta Vigo40%
BTTS rate
Alaves60%
Celta Vigo20%
Over 2.5 goals
Alaves60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -3.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown tendencies toward low-scoring matches recently, with Celta Vigo's strong defensive record and Alaves' counterattack style limiting goal volume. The BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context fits a game where scoring chances are scarce and defenses maintain control.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCelta Vigo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Celta Vigo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Alaves Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 56.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (-3.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Despite failing to register a shot on target in their recent goalless draw with Elche, Celta have the capacity to score at home, having.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celta Vigo

DWDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 2L
11 Oct 2026A Elche0-0
19 Sep 2026H Racing Santander5-0
13 Sep 2026H Malaga1-1
07 Sep 2026A Getafe1-1
03 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad0-0

Alaves

LDLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1
12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2
06 Sep 2026H Osasuna5-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 77% · edge +8.3 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Celta Vigo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Celta Vigo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Alaves Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Celta Vigo averaging 1.4 goals for and 0.4 against, with only 20% of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, underscoring their defensive focus. Alaves matches have higher goal rates but recent losses suggest struggles to convert chances, supporting a low-scoring forecast.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Celta Vigo Over 2.5
60%Alaves Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating potential for goals historically. However, recent trends and tactical setups suggest a slower tempo and fewer chances, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this specific fixture.

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