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Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
v
Alaves crestAlaves

La Liga | Sun 18 Oct, 15:15

Celta Vigo v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celta Vigo face Alaves in La Liga on Sun 18 Oct, 15:15. Celta Vigo's recent matches have been low scoring, with eight of their last ten league games featuring under 3 goals. Celta Vigo and Alaves arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2

  • At 1.67, Under 2 implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Despite failing to register a shot on target in their recent goalless draw with Elche, Celta have the capacity to score at home, having.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Celta Vigo are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Alaves at 1.4.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 56% for Under 2 sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Despite failing to register a shot on target in their recent goalless draw with Elche, Celta have the capacity to score at home, having.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Celta Vigo.Visible data support
Positive
Celta Vigo are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Despite failing to register a shot on target in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Under 2.5 Goals. Celta Vigo are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Alaves at 1.4. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Selection: Under 2.5 Goals.

Celta Vigo are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Alaves at 1.4.

BTTS rates of 40% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celta Vigo1.4
Avg goals scored
Alaves1.4
Celta Vigo0.4
Avg goals conceded
Alaves1.4
Celta Vigo40%
BTTS rate
Alaves60%
Celta Vigo20%
Over 2.5 goals
Alaves60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -3.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for Celta Vigo and 60% for Alaves, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCelta Vigo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Celta Vigo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Alaves Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Celta Vigo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celta Vigo

DWDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 2L
11 Oct 2026A Elche0-0
19 Sep 2026H Racing Santander5-0
13 Sep 2026H Malaga1-1
07 Sep 2026A Getafe1-1
03 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad0-0

Alaves

LDLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1
12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2
06 Sep 2026H Osasuna5-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 77% · edge +8.3 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Celta Vigo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Celta Vigo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Alaves Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Celta Vigo Over 2.5
60%Alaves Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Celta Vigo sit at 20% and Alaves sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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