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Celje crestCelje
v
Red Bull Salzburg crestRed Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Celje v Red Bull Salzburg Stats

Data last updated: Thu 12 Nov 2026, 23:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celje face Red Bull Salzburg in UEFA Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 20:00. Salzburg's unbeaten away run contrasts with Celje's Europa League goal drought. Salzburg's unbeaten away record and defensive solidity contrast with Celje's scoring struggles.

BT4Y match pick

Red Bull Salzburg to win

  • At 1.53, Red Bull Salzburg to win implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • 5 clean sheets: Salzburg have prevented opponents scoring in five of their last six away fixtures.
  • Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje.
  • Red Bull Salzburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Red Bull Salzburg to win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 61% for Red Bull Salzburg to win sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje. 5 clean sheets: Salzburg have prevented opponents scoring in five of their last six away fixtures.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Negative
Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
Red Bull Salzburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
5 clean sheets: Salzburg have prevented opponents scoring in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Red Bull Salzburg Win is the preferred angle because 5 clean sheets: Salzburg have prevented opponents scoring in five of their last six away fixtures. Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje. The hosts must therefore balance caution with a willingness to attack when opportunities emerge.

Main risk

The hosts must therefore balance caution with a willingness to attack when opportunities emerge.

Key Data Signals

Red Bull Salzburg to win evidence

5 clean sheets: Salzburg have prevented opponents scoring in five of their last six away fixtures.

Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje.

Red Bull Salzburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Red Bull Salzburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Red Bull Salzburg to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Celje0
    Avg goals scored
    Red Bull Salzburg1.6
    Celje2.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Red Bull Salzburg1.4
    Celje0%
    BTTS rate
    Red Bull Salzburg20%
    Celje50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Red Bull Salzburg60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Europa League analysisCelje v Red Bull Salzburg predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 65% · edge -4 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Red Bull Salzburg to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Celje

    LL
    Last 50W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 2L
    15 Oct 2026H Omonia Nicosia0-3
    16 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-2

    Red Bull Salzburg

    LWWWD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 1L
    15 Oct 2026H AC Milan0-4
    17 Sep 2026A Levski Sofia1-0
    27 Aug 2026H Mjallby AIF3-0
    20 Aug 2026A Mjallby AIF1-0
    13 Aug 2026A Pafos3-3
    Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 65% · edge -4 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 82%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Celje Over 2.5
    60%Red Bull Salzburg Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Celje sit at 50% and Red Bull Salzburg sit at 60%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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