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Celje crestCelje
v
Red Bull Salzburg crestRed Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Celje v Red Bull Salzburg Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Celje hosting Red Bull Salzburg, with Salzburg entering the match in strong form after accumulating 10 points recently, contrasting with Celje's struggles and no points gained. Salzburg's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity have been notable, while Celje has conceded heavily and failed to score. The match presents a clear tactical challenge for Celje, who must contain Salzburg's dynamic offense and find ways to break through a disciplined defense. Salzburg's experience and quality make them favorites, but Celje's home setting could inspire resistance in this important group stage fixture.

BT4Y match pick

Red Bull Salzburg to Win

  • Red Bull Salzburg has won 10 points recently; Celje has none.
  • Salzburg averages 1.6 goals per game, Celje has scored zero.
  • Celje concedes 2.5 goals per game, Salzburg concedes 1.4.
  • Salzburg averages 6 shots on target per game versus Celje's 2.5.
  • No previous head-to-head meetings between these teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Red Bull Salzburg's of 70% to win reflects their superior recent form, stronger offensive output, and more robust defense compared to Celje. Salzburg's average of 1.6 goals per game and 6 shots on target per match indicates consistent attacking threat, while Celje's lack of goals and high concession rate underline their vulnerability. The price at 1.62 offers positive value given the 8.3% edge over the implied chance. The absence of head-to-head history places more emphasis on current form and season stats, which strongly favor Salzburg.

Recent formSalzburg 10 points vs Celje 0
Strong positive
Goals scored/concededSalzburg 1.6/1.4, Celje 0/2.5
Strong positive
Shots on targetSalzburg 6, Celje 2.5
Strong positive
Price vs model chance59.6% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-2.1 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Red Bull Salzburg's superior attacking efficiency and defensive resilience make them the clear favorites to win this Europa League fixture. Their recent form and shot volume indicate a team capable of controlling the match and breaking down Celje's defense, which has struggled to score and prevent goals. Salzburg's quality and experience should secure the victory in this group stage encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Salzburg's consistent offensive pressure and defensive organization create a strong foundation for victory here, especially against a Celje side that has yet to find scoring form in this competition.”

Key Data Signals

Red Bull Salzburg to Win evidence

Red Bull Salzburg has won 10 points recently; Celje has none.

Salzburg averages 1.6 goals per game, Celje has scored zero.

Celje concedes 2.5 goals per game, Salzburg concedes 1.4.

Salzburg averages 6 shots on target per game versus Celje's 2.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Red Bull Salzburg to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Salzburg has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Celje's matches hit this mark 50% of the time.
  • The average goals per game in this fixture's context suggest a moderately open game with Salzburg's attacking tempo likely to push the total goals over 2.5, especially given Celje's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celje0
Avg goals scored
Red Bull Salzburg1.6
Celje2.5
Avg goals conceded
Red Bull Salzburg1.4
Celje0%
BTTS rate
Red Bull Salzburg20%
Celje50%
Over 2.5 goals
Red Bull Salzburg60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Celje has failed to score in recent matches while conceding 2.5 goals per game, whereas Salzburg averages 1.6 goals and has a 20% BTTS rate. This suggests a likely low-scoring game with Salzburg scoring but Celje struggling to find the net, making BTTS less probable and goals likely leaning towards under 3.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 62% · edge -2.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 59.6% for Red Bull Salzburg to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (-2.1 pts). Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celje

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
15 Oct 2026H Omonia Nicosia0-3
16 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-2

Red Bull Salzburg

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026H AC Milan0-4
17 Sep 2026A Levski Sofia1-0
27 Aug 2026H Mjallby AIF3-0
20 Aug 2026A Mjallby AIF1-0
13 Aug 2026A Pafos3-3
Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 62% · edge -2.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Red Bull Salzburg's recent form is strong with 10 points gained, reflecting consistent winning performances and effective goal scoring. Celje's form is poor with zero points and no goals scored, indicating offensive struggles and defensive frailty. This contrast in momentum heavily favors Salzburg to maintain their winning run in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Celje Over 2.5
60%Red Bull Salzburg Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Salzburg has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Celje's matches hit this mark 50% of the time. The average goals per game in this fixture's context suggest a moderately open game with Salzburg's attacking tempo likely to push the total goals over 2.5, especially given Celje's defensive vulnerabilities.

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