Football Stats Hub

Cavese crestCavese
v
Casarano crestCasarano

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Cavese v Casarano Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cavese hosts Casarano in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams are closely matched in the standings, with Cavese sitting 11th and Casarano 14th. Cavese's recent form shows a stronger attacking output, averaging 2.2 goals per game and securing 7 points in recent matches, while Casarano has struggled offensively, scoring just 0.4 goals per game and earning 5 points. Cavese's higher scoring rate and home advantage position them as favorites, though Casarano's defensive solidity could keep the contest tight. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this balanced fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Cavese to Win

  • Cavese has a 59% to win, priced at 2.15 with positive value.
  • Cavese averages 2.2 goals per game versus Casarano's 0.4, indicating stronger attack.
  • Casarano's low BTTS rate (20%) contrasts with Cavese's 80%, suggesting Cavese's offense is more consistent.
  • Recent form favors Cavese with 7 points compared to Casarano's 5 in recent matches.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.6 over last 5 matches, supporting a moderately open game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cavese to win based on their superior recent form and attacking output, with a 59% chance compared to the implied 46.5% from , offering a 12.5% . Cavese's ability to score more goals and maintain offensive pressure contrasts with Casarano's limited scoring, making Cavese the stronger side. The home advantage and slightly better league position reinforce this view. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance59% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance59% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Positive
Value Edge59% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ForCavese 2.2 vs Casarano 0.4
Strong positive
BTTS RatesCavese 80%, Casarano 20%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cavese's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the likely winners in this Serie C fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Casarano's struggles upfront, providing a solid data-backed reason to expect a Cavese victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Cavese's offensive consistency and home comfort give them a clear edge over Casarano, whose low scoring output and defensive style may not be enough to prevent defeat here.”

Key Data Signals

Cavese to Win evidence

Cavese has a 59% to win, priced at 2.15 with positive value.

Cavese averages 2.2 goals per game versus Casarano's 0.4, indicating stronger attack.

Casarano's low BTTS rate (20%) contrasts with Cavese's 80%, suggesting Cavese's offense is more consistent.

Recent form favors Cavese with 7 points compared to Casarano's 5 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Cavese to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Cavese is 60%, while Casarano has none, suggesting Cavese's games are more likely to feature multiple goals.
  • The H2H average of 2.6 goals supports a moderately open game with scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cavese2.2
Avg goals scored
Casarano0.4
Cavese2
Avg goals conceded
Casarano0.8
Cavese80%
BTTS rate
Casarano20%
Cavese60%
Over 2.5 goals
Casarano0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 49% · edge +12 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Cavese's high BTTS rate of 80% and average goals scored (2.2) contrast sharply with Casarano's low scoring and 20% BTTS rate, indicating Cavese's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich. The H2H average of 2.6 goals supports a moderate scoring expectation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 47% · edge +12.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Cavese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 59% for Cavese to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+12.5 pts). Cavese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Casarano.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cavese

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
12 Oct 2026A Barletta1-1
03 Oct 2026H Casertana2-0
26 Sep 2026H Savoia4-2
20 Sep 2026A Potenza2-4
15 Sep 2026H Sorrento2-3

Casarano

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026H Salernitana0-0
03 Oct 2026A Sorrento0-2
27 Sep 2026H SS Monopoli0-1
19 Sep 2026A Savoia1-1
15 Sep 2026H Audace Cerignola1-0
Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 47% · edge +12.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Cavese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Cavese's recent form shows 7 points with a higher goal rate, indicating momentum and . Casarano's 5 points and low scoring highlight offensive struggles, suggesting Cavese holds the upper hand going into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cavese Over 2.5
0%Casarano Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Cavese is 60%, while Casarano has none, suggesting Cavese's games are more likely to feature multiple goals. The H2H average of 2.6 goals supports a moderately open game with scoring opportunities.

Loading deeper match data…