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Casa Piav
TondelaPrimeira Liga | Sun 03 May, 15:30
Casa Pia v Tondela Stats
BT4Y best bet
Both Teams to Score
- At 3.75, Both Teams to Score is priced at roughly 27% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 63%, so the current line is showing a +36.6-point value edge.
- Casa Pia have scored in 60% of the recent sample and Tondela have scored in 40%, with BTTS rates of 60% and 40%.
- The goals data supports the Both Teams to Score angle: Casa Pia have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Both Teams to Score angle: Tondela have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 3.75, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 27% · edge +36.6 pts
3.75
Bet HERE @ 3.75Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
40%Casa Pia Over 2.5
60%Tondela Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Casa Pia
LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 recordLast 101W 4D 5L
27 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-2
23 Apr 2026H SC Braga0-1
18 Apr 2026H Santa Clara0-0
12 Apr 2026A Alverca1-3
06 Apr 2026H Benfica1-1
Tondela
DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 recordLast 101W 5D 4L
29 Apr 2026A Sporting CP2-2
25 Apr 2026H Nacional0-2
19 Apr 2026A FC Porto0-2
13 Apr 2026H GIL Vicente2-2
03 Apr 2026A Guimaraes0-5
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 82% · edge -5.9 pts
1.22
Bet HERE @ 1.22Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Casa Pia0.6
Avg goals scoredTondela0.8
Casa Pia1.4
Avg goals concededTondela2.6
Casa Pia60%
BTTS rateTondela40%
Casa Pia40%
Over 2.5 goalsTondela60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 27% · edge +36.6 pts
3.75
Bet HERE @ 3.75Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
1Casa Pia wins
0Draws
0Tondela wins
21 Dec 2025Tondela v Casa Pia1-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 27% · edge +36.6 pts
3.75
Bet HERE @ 3.75Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Casa Pia5
Avg corners forTondela4.4
Casa Pia12.2
Avg total cornersTondela10
Casa Pia1.8
Avg yellow cardsTondela3.4
Casa Pia9.4
Avg shotsTondela9.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 52% · edge +16.9 pts
1.92
Bet HERE @ 1.92Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Best player anglePedro Maranhão Anytime GoalscorerPedro Maranhão · 6 goals · 0.94 SOT/90
72/100
Bet HERELoad more player angles
Pedro MaranhãoTondela · Midfielder
Goal threat53/100
Shots /902
SOT /900.94
CassianoCasa Pia · Attacker
Goal threat43/100
Shots /901.24
SOT /900.57
Rony LopesTondela · Midfielder
Goal threat43/100
Shots /902.03
SOT /900.81
Max SvenssonCasa Pia · Attacker
Goal threat28/100
Shots /903.07
SOT /901.53
Xabi HuarteTondela · Midfielder
Goal threat25/100
Shots /902.69
SOT /901.34
Y. RodriguezTondela · Attacker
Goal threat33/100
Shots /901.78
SOT /901.11
ClaudioCasa Pia · Attacker
Goal threat41/100
Shots /902.7
SOT /901.01
I. MohamedCasa Pia · Midfielder
Goal threat14/100
Shots /900.28
SOT /900.09
Season team stats
Primeira Liga
Casa Pia32
PlayedTondela32
Casa Pia0.9
Avg goals forTondela0.8
Casa Pia1.8
Avg goals againstTondela1.6
Casa Pia6
Clean sheetsTondela6
Best odds for this sectionHome WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 44% · edge +4 pts
2.3
Bet HERE @ 2.3Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 26 | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -27 |
| 17 | Tondela | 25 | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -28 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
