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Casa Pia crestCasa Pia
v
Rio Ave crestRio Ave

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 18:00

Casa Pia v Rio Ave Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 09:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia face Rio Ave in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 18:00. Casa Pia come in with 4 recent points and 0.4 goals per match, while Rio Ave have 5 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Rio Ave to Win

  • At 5.25, Rio Ave Win implies roughly 19%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 46%.
  • Rio Ave have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Casa Pia.
  • Casa Pia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Rio Ave Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Casa Pia sit 16 in the table, while Rio Ave sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 46% for Rio Ave Win sits against roughly 19% implied by the current price. Rio Ave have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Casa Pia.

Model chance vs price46% model chance against roughly 19% implied
Strong positive
Rio Ave have the stronger recent points return, taking 5.Visible data support
Positive
Casa Pia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Rio Ave Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Rio Ave have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Casa Pia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Rio Ave Win evidence

Rio Ave have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Casa Pia.

Casa Pia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Rio Ave Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Casa Pia sit 16 in the table, while Rio Ave sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Rio Ave Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Casa Pia4.4
    Avg corners for
    Rio Ave5.2
    Casa Pia9
    Avg total corners
    Rio Ave10.8
    Casa Pia3.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Rio Ave2.8
    Casa Pia7.8
    Avg shots
    Rio Ave11.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 53% · edge +10.5 pts
    1.88
    Check odds @ 1.88
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Casa Pia0.4
    Avg goals scored
    Rio Ave1
    Casa Pia0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Rio Ave1.6
    Casa Pia20%
    BTTS rate
    Rio Ave40%
    Casa Pia20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Rio Ave40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +14.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRio Ave to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 19% · edge +26.7 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Rio Ave Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Rio Ave to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Casa Pia

    WLLLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 5L
    11 May 2026A Guimaraes1-0
    03 May 2026H Tondela0-1
    27 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-2
    23 Apr 2026H SC Braga0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Santa Clara0-0

    Rio Ave

    LDLDW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    11 May 2026H Sporting CP1-4
    03 May 2026H GIL Vicente0-0
    25 Apr 2026A Guimaraes0-2
    17 Apr 2026H AVS2-2
    11 Apr 2026A Santa Clara2-0
    Market aligned with main pickRio Ave to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 19% · edge +26.7 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Rio Ave Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Casa Pia wins
    3Draws
    5Rio Ave wins
    04 Jan 2026Rio Ave v Casa Pia3-1
    29 Mar 2025Casa Pia v Rio Ave2-1
    12 Jan 2025Casa Pia v Rio Ave1-3
    02 Nov 2024Rio Ave v Casa Pia2-2
    11 Feb 2024Rio Ave v Casa Pia1-0
    02 Sep 2023Casa Pia v Rio Ave1-1
    Market aligned with main pickRio Ave to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 19% · edge +26.7 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Rio Ave to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Casa Pia36
    Played
    Rio Ave34
    Casa Pia0.9
    Avg goals for
    Rio Ave1
    Casa Pia1.6
    Avg goals against
    Rio Ave1.7
    Casa Pia9
    Clean sheets
    Rio Ave6
    Market aligned with main pickRio Ave to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 19% · edge +26.7 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Rio Ave Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Season data supports Rio Ave to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    12Rio Ave363481214-22
    16Casa Pia303461216-26
    Casa Pia sit in position 16, while Rio Ave sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Rio Ave Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Casa Pia Over 2.5
    40%Rio Ave Over 2.5
    2.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Casa Pia sit at 20% and Rio Ave sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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