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Casa Pia crestCasa Pia
v
Benfica crestBenfica

Primeira Liga | Mon 17 Aug, 20:15

Casa Pia v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 06:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia face Benfica in Primeira Liga on Mon 17 Aug, 20:15. Benfica have a strong away record with five wins in their last seven league matches and an unbeaten 50-match Primeira Liga run. Vangelis Pavlidis is in excellent scoring form with six goals in four appearances.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica to win and both teams to score

  • At 11/5, Benfica to win and both teams to score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.
  • Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 100% for Benfica.
  • Benfica to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0 for Casa Pia and 2 for Benfica are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Benfica to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1. Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Positive
Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Benfica to win and both teams to score evidence

Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 100% for Benfica.

Benfica Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0 for Casa Pia and 2 for Benfica are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casa Pia0
Avg goals scored
Benfica2
Casa Pia1
Avg goals conceded
Benfica2
Casa Pia0%
BTTS rate
Benfica100%
Casa Pia0%
Over 2.5 goals
Benfica100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 82% · edge -10.6 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Benfica Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Benfica to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casa Pia

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1

Benfica

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
09 Aug 2026H Academico Viseu2-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 96% · edge -12.2 pts
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
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Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Benfica Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Casa Pia Over 2.5
100%Benfica Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Casa Pia sit at 0% and Benfica sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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