Casa Pia

Benfica

Primeira Liga | Mon 17 Aug, 20:15

Casa Pia v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 18:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia face Benfica in Primeira Liga on Mon 17 Aug, 20:15. Benfica have a strong away record with five wins in their last seven league matches and an unbeaten 50-match Primeira Liga run. Vangelis Pavlidis is in excellent scoring form with six goals in four appearances.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica to win and both teams to score

At 11/5, Benfica to win and both teams to score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.
Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1.
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 100% for Benfica.
Benfica to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0 for Casa Pia and 2 for Benfica are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 38% for Benfica to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1. Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 31% implied

Positive

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support

Positive

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support

Positive

Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Benfica to win and both teams to score evidence

Casa Pia and Benfica both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Casa Pia on 0 and Benfica on 1.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 100% for Benfica.

Benfica Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0 for Casa Pia and 2 for Benfica are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica to win and both teams to score notes

Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Casa Pia6

Avg corners for

Benfica10

Casa Pia8

Avg total corners

Benfica12

Casa Pia2

Avg yellow cards

Benfica2

Casa Pia9

Avg shots

Benfica28

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 58% · edge -3.8 pts

1.73

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.98

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictions related match prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casa Pia0

Avg goals scored

Benfica2

Casa Pia1

Avg goals conceded

Benfica2

Casa Pia0%

BTTS rate

Benfica100%

Casa Pia0%

Over 2.5 goals

Benfica100%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%

2.3

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.5

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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 89% · edge -25.1 pts

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%

2.2

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Benfica Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casa Pia

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1

Benfica

Last 50W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 0L

09 Aug 2026H Academico Viseu2-2

Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 96% · edge -15.3 pts

1.04

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Benfica Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%

1.12

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Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Casa Pia wins

3Draws

4Benfica wins

06 Apr 2026Casa Pia v Benfica1-1

09 Nov 2025Benfica v Casa Pia2-2

25 Jan 2025Casa Pia v Benfica3-1

17 Aug 2024Benfica v Casa Pia3-0

17 Mar 2024Casa Pia v Benfica0-1

28 Oct 2023Benfica v Casa Pia1-1

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 82% · edge -26.7 pts

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

The head-to-head sample gives context for Benfica to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia5

Played

Benfica4

Casa Pia0

Avg goals for

Benfica3.5

Casa Pia2.2

Avg goals against

Benfica0.8

Casa Pia1

Clean sheets

Benfica2

Market aligned with main pickBenfica Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 89% · edge -25.1 pts

1.12

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Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Season data supports Benfica Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
4	Benfica	10	4	3	1	0	11
18	Casa Pia	1	5	0	1	4	-11

Casa Pia sit in position 18, while Benfica sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Benfica to win and both teams to score assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Casa Pia Over 2.5

100%Benfica Over 2.5

2.5H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Casa Pia sit at 0% and Benfica sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Benfica Stats

Match Report

Benfica to win and both teams to score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Casa Pia

Benfica

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Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Benfica Stats

Match Report

Benfica to win and both teams to score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Casa Pia

Benfica

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