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Carlisle crestCarlisle
v
Salford City crestSalford City

FA Cup | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Carlisle v Salford City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Carlisle and Salford City meet in this FA Cup tie with both sides likely to approach the game with attacking intent. Carlisle's recent matches have featured high-scoring outcomes, while Salford City's thinner data sample suggests some uncertainty but hints at offensive potential. The FA Cup setting often encourages open play and risk-taking, which could lead to multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams will aim to assert control early, making this fixture a candidate for a lively, goal-rich contest underpinned by Carlisle's strong recent scoring form and Salford's attacking players.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Carlisle's last matches all exceeded 2.5 goals, showing strong attacking output.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 per game over 10 meetings.
  • Salford City's attacking players like Kyrell Malcolm average over 2 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • FA Cup ties often see open, attacking football leading to higher goal counts.
  • Model projects a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals with positive value at 2.38 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance against a 42% implied market chance, reflecting a 16% . Carlisle's recent matches have consistently produced high goal totals, while the H2H average of 3.2 goals supports an open game. Salford City's attacking players, notably Kyrell Malcolm, contribute significant shot volume, increasing scoring opportunities. Despite thinner data for Salford, the FA Cup context and attacking tendencies suggest a match prone to multiple goals. This combination of form, player threat, and historical trends underpins the model's .

Carlisle recent Over 2.5 rate100% in last matches
Strong positive
H2H average goals3.2 goals per game
Positive
Salford City's attacking shotsKyrell Malcolm 2.43 SOT/90
Positive
Market implied chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Data quality for Salford CityLimited data sample
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking FA Cup tie with Carlisle's recent high-scoring form and Salford City's offensive players likely to create chances. The combination of historical goal averages and current attacking momentum suggests Over 3.5 Goals is a plausible outcome in this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“The attacking profiles of both teams, combined with the FA Cup's open nature, make a high-scoring game very likely. Carlisle's consistent goal output and Salford's key shooters create a strong case for Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Carlisle's last matches all exceeded 2.5 goals, showing strong attacking output.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 per game over 10 meetings.

Salford City's attacking players like Kyrell Malcolm average over 2 shots on target per 90 minutes.

FA Cup ties often see open, attacking football leading to higher goal counts.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a tempo and attacking rhythm conducive to Over 2.5 and likely Over 3.5 goals in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carlisle

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Tamworth2-1

Salford City

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Salford City yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 64% · edge -2.5 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Carlisle to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Carlisle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Salford City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Salford City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Carlisle's recent form is marked by consistent goal scoring and matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting an aggressive attacking approach. Salford City's limited recent data makes form assessment harder, but their attacking players' shot volumes suggest offensive intent that complements Carlisle's style, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals pick.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carlisle2
Avg goals scored
Salford City-
Carlisle1
Avg goals conceded
Salford City-
Carlisle100%
BTTS rate
Salford City-
Carlisle100%
Over 2.5 goals
Salford City-
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Carlisle's recent matches have all featured goals exceeding 2.5, with both teams scoring in those games. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals per game further supports an open contest likely to produce multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Carlisle to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Carlisle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Salford City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Salford City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+13.6 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Carlisle Over 2.5
-Salford City Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a tempo and attacking rhythm conducive to Over 2.5 and likely Over 3.5 goals in this fixture.

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