Football Stats Hub

Cardiff crestCardiff
v
Wrexham crestWrexham

Championship | Mon 17 Aug, 20:00

Cardiff v Wrexham Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 03:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cardiff face Wrexham in Championship on Mon 17 Aug, 20:00. Cardiff won 17 of 23 home league matches last season, a record that gives their four-match home winning run considerably more weight.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2

  • At 1.8, Over 2 implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 55%.
  • This trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5 Goals for a focus solely on mutual scoring, though at a shorter price.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 55% for Over 2 sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. This trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5 Goals for a focus solely on mutual scoring, though at a shorter price.

Model chance vs price55% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Neutral
This trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -0.8 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because this trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5 Goals for a focus solely on mutual scoring, though at a shorter price. Pre-season scorelines require restraint, but the continuation into competitive action gives the pattern more substance.

Main risk

Pre-season scorelines require restraint, but the continuation into competitive action gives the pattern more substance.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

This trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5 Goals for a focus solely on mutual scoring, though.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cardiff-
Avg goals scored
Wrexham-
Cardiff-
Avg goals conceded
Wrexham-
Cardiff-
BTTS rate
Wrexham-
Cardiff-
Over 2.5 goals
Wrexham-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 56% · edge -0.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisrelated match predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 56% · edge -0.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Cardiff Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cardiff to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Wrexham to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cardiff

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cardiff yet.

Wrexham

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Wrexham yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Cardiff Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cardiff to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Wrexham to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Wrexham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Cardiff Over 2.5
-Wrexham Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
This trades the extra goal requirement of Over 2.5 Goals for a focus solely on mutual scoring, though at a shorter price.

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