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Cambuur crestCambuur
v
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 23:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar meet in this Eredivisie clash with both teams showing moderate scoring and conceding patterns. Cambuur has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, while AZ Alkmaar scores slightly higher at 2 goals per match but concedes similarly at 1.4. Recent form suggests a cautious tempo, with Cambuur earning 8 points and AZ Alkmaar 10 from their last fixtures. Both sides have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating some goal threat but also defensive resilience. The match is poised for a tactical battle with neither side dominating outright, making a low-scoring outcome plausible.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Cambuur averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season.
  • AZ Alkmaar scores 2 goals per match but concedes 1.4 on average.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, showing balanced attacking and defensive traits.
  • Recent form points to cautious play with Cambuur on 8 points and AZ Alkmaar on 10 in recent matches.
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.9 goals, supporting a lower scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54.2% chance, reflecting the moderate scoring rates and defensive solidity of both teams. Despite AZ Alkmaar's slightly higher attacking output, their defensive concessions and Cambuur's balanced form suggest limited goal volume. The 1.9 average goals in their last 10 meetings reinforce a trend toward fewer goals. The at 3.1 offer strong value given the implied chance is only 32.3%, making Under 2.5 Goals an attractive selection with solid . No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataModerate scoring and conceding rates
Positive
H2H Average Goals1.9 goals per match
Positive
Price Value Edge49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the balanced scoring and defensive profiles of Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar. The tactical caution expected from both sides, combined with their recent moderate goal outputs, suggests a controlled game with limited chances. This aligns well with the statistical trends and recent form data, making a low-scoring match the most probable outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture features two teams with solid defensive structures and moderate attacking threat, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice. The average goals in their head-to-head and current form support a match likely to stay tight and tactical.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cambuur averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season.

AZ Alkmaar scores 2 goals per match but concedes 1.4 on average.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, showing balanced attacking and defensive traits.

Recent form points to cautious play with Cambuur on 8 points and AZ Alkmaar on 10 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating a trend toward lower scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal opportunities, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization and controlled attacking phases, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend observed in recent meetings.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cambuur1.6
Avg goals scored
AZ Alkmaar2
Cambuur1.4
Avg goals conceded
AZ Alkmaar1.4
Cambuur60%
BTTS rate
AZ Alkmaar60%
Cambuur60%
Over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar have moderate scoring rates and identical 60% BTTS percentages, indicating a balanced likelihood of both teams scoring. However, their defensive records and average goals per game suggest matches often stay under 2.5 goals. The 1.9 average goals in their last 10 meetings further supports a trend toward fewer goals and controlled attacking play.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Cambuur to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
The 49.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Cambuur and 40% for AZ Alkmaar, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cambuur

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026A PEC Zwolle1-0
19 Sep 2026A ADO Den Haag1-1
12 Sep 2026H NEC Nijmegen3-0
06 Sep 2026A Telstar2-2
30 Aug 2026H Twente1-4

AZ Alkmaar

LWDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
10 Oct 2026A Feyenoord0-2
20 Sep 2026H Telstar1-0
11 Sep 2026H Willem II1-1
06 Sep 2026A Heerenveen3-2
29 Aug 2026H GO Ahead Eagles5-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Cambuur to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Recent form data shows Cambuur accumulating 8 points with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while AZ Alkmaar has 10 points with 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average. Both teams' over 2.5 goals rates differ, with Cambuur at 60% and AZ at 40%, suggesting Cambuur's matches are more open but AZ tends to be more controlled. This form supports a cautious approach likely to limit total goals under 2.5.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cambuur Over 2.5
40%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating a trend toward lower scoring encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal opportunities, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization and controlled attacking phases, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend observed in recent meetings.

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