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Burnley crestBurnley
v
West Ham crestWest Ham

Championship | Sun 16 Aug, 16:00

Burnley v West Ham Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 11:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley face West Ham in Championship on Sun 16 Aug, 16:00. Burnley conceded 75 Premier League goals last season, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. West Ham arrive in strong form after an unbeaten pre-season and a 3-1 EFL Cup win, contrasting with Burnley’s winless summer schedule and defensive struggles.

BT4Y match pick

West Ham to win

  • At 13/10, West Ham to win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness justifies their single goal, making this a competitive correct scoreline.
  • Burnley sit 24 in the table, while West Ham sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for West Ham to win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Burnley sit 24 in the table, while West Ham sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness justifies their single goal, making this a competitive correct scoreline.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Neutral
Burnley sit 24 in the table, while West Ham sit.Visible data support
Positive
Burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: West Ham Win is the preferred angle because burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness justifies their single goal, making this a competitive correct scoreline. Burnley sit 24 in the table, while West Ham sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Although Crysencio Summerville and Mateus Fernandes departed for substantial fees, retaining Jarrod Bowen gives Nuno Espirito Santo proven attacking continuity.

Main risk

Although Crysencio Summerville and Mateus Fernandes departed for substantial fees, retaining Jarrod Bowen gives Nuno Espirito Santo proven attacking continuity.

Key Data Signals

West Ham to win evidence

Burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness justifies their single goal, making this a competitive correct.

Burnley sit 24 in the table, while West Ham sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 46% · edge -3.4 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    West Ham to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Burnley-
    Avg goals scored
    West Ham-
    Burnley-
    Avg goals conceded
    West Ham-
    Burnley-
    BTTS rate
    West Ham-
    Burnley-
    Over 2.5 goals
    West Ham-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +9.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 69%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Burnley

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Burnley yet.

    West Ham

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for West Ham yet.

    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 46% · edge -3.4 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Burnley Over 2.5
    -West Ham Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    Burnley’s ability to score at home despite pre-season winlessness justifies their single goal, making this a competitive correct scoreline.

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