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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Portsmouth crestPortsmouth

Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Burnley v Portsmouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 22:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley and Portsmouth meet in a Championship clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Burnley, positioned 22nd, have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 1.8 goals per game, while Portsmouth, sitting 11th, also concede regularly but have been more efficient going forward. Recent form data highlights Burnley's high BTTS rate of 80% and Portsmouth's 60%, suggesting open play and goal-scoring chances at both ends. Tactical setups and attacking roles indicate a contest where both teams are likely to find the net, making goal-scoring from both sides a key feature of this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Burnley have an 80% BTTS rate recently, showing frequent goals conceded and scored.
  • Portsmouth's BTTS rate stands at 60%, indicating regular scoring and conceding.
  • Both teams average nearly 13 shots per game, reflecting attacking intent.
  • H2H meetings average 2.5 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Top attackers like T. Flemming contribute significant shot volume and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, driven by Burnley's and Portsmouth's recent attacking and defensive stats. Burnley’s 80% BTTS rate combined with Portsmouth’s 60% rate, alongside their average shots on target, underline a high likelihood of goals at both ends. The historical average of 2.5 goals per meeting further supports this. The pricing at 1.73 offers positive value given the model’s higher probability, making BTTS a compelling selection for this match.

Burnley BTTS Rate80% recent matches
Strong positive
Portsmouth BTTS Rate60% recent matches
Positive
Average Shots per Game~13 combined
Positive
H2H Average Goals2.5 goals per match
Positive
Model Probability72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score, with Burnley’s defensive struggles and Portsmouth’s attacking threats making both teams to score a logical pick. The data reflects a match likely to feature goals from each side, supported by recent form and player attacking profiles.

Main risk

However, their attacking output away from Fratton Park has been more restrained.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two sides with clear offensive intent but defensive frailties, making both teams to score a natural outcome. The attacking roles of Waddingham and Flemming add further weight to the likelihood of goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Burnley have an 80% BTTS rate recently, showing frequent goals conceded and scored.

Portsmouth's BTTS rate stands at 60%, indicating regular scoring and conceding.

Both teams average nearly 13 shots per game, reflecting attacking intent.

H2H meetings average 2.5 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals per match stand at 2.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture history.
  • Burnley’s recent 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Portsmouth’s 40%, suggesting Burnley’s matches tend to be more open and goal-rich.
  • This trend panel supports the expectation of multiple goals and aligns with the BTTS selection for this game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley1.8
Avg goals scored
Portsmouth1.4
Burnley1.8
Avg goals conceded
Portsmouth1
Burnley80%
BTTS rate
Portsmouth60%
Burnley80%
Over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Burnley’s 80% BTTS rate and Portsmouth’s 60% rate highlight frequent scoring and conceding patterns. Combined with an average of 2.5 goals in their recent head-to-head matches, the data suggests an open game with goals expected from both teams, supported by their attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionsBurnley v Portsmouth predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Burnley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 72.8% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Burnley show a 80% BTTS rate and Portsmouth show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
24 Oct 2026A Lincoln1-4
16 Oct 2026H Wolves1-2
13 Oct 2026H Charlton2-2
10 Oct 2026A Watford4-0
19 Sep 2026H Derby1-1

Portsmouth

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Millwall2-1
20 Oct 2026A Wolves1-1
17 Oct 2026A Norwich1-0
14 Oct 2026H Sheffield Utd3-2
11 Oct 2026A Southampton0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Burnley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Burnley to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data shows Burnley scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.8 per game, with a strong 80% BTTS rate, indicating matches with goals at both ends. Portsmouth’s form is slightly more conservative but still features a 60% BTTS rate and 1.4 goals scored per game. These trends reflect a match environment conducive to both teams finding the net.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Burnley Over 2.5
40%Portsmouth Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals per match stand at 2.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture history. Burnley’s recent 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Portsmouth’s 40%, suggesting Burnley’s matches tend to be more open and goal-rich. This trend panel supports the expectation of multiple goals and aligns with the BTTS selection for this game.

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