Burnley

Notts County

League Cup | Sat 08 Aug, 15:00

Burnley v Notts County Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 22:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley face Notts County in League Cup on Sat 08 Aug, 15:00. Notts County managed 16 clean sheets in 54, averaging 0.3 per fixture. Burnley vs Notts County: EFL Cup Clash Puts Contrasting Form Under the Microscope. Burnley’s possession and passing control contrasts with Notts County’s higher attacking frequency and dangerous attacks.

BT4Y best bet

S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins

At 7/1, S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
Burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding 81 goals in 42 matches with only 10% clean sheets, combined with Notts County’s strong attacking record of 82 goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding 81 goals in 42 matches with only 10% clean sheets, combined with Notts County’s strong attacking record of 82 goals.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied

Strong positive

Burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding 81 goals in 42 matches.Article support

Positive

Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Burnley Win is the preferred angle because burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding that scoring level in 42 matches with only that rate, combined with Notts County’s strong attacking record of that scoring level in 54 matches and 46. Their overall goal difference across that sample is therefore a major concern.

Main risk

Their overall goal difference across that sample is therefore a major concern.

Key Data Signals

S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins evidence

Burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding 81 goals in 42 matches with only 10% clean sheets, combined with Notts County’s.

What To Watch In The Data

S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins notes

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.9 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Burnley to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley-

Avg goals scored

Notts County-

Burnley-

Avg goals conceded

Notts County-

Burnley-

BTTS rate

Notts County-

Burnley-

Over 2.5 goals

Notts County-

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Burnley yet.

Notts County

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Notts County yet.

Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.9 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Burnley wins

0Draws

0Notts County wins

Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.9 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Burnley to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Season team stats

League Cup

Burnley2

Played

Notts County1

Burnley1

Avg goals for

Notts County1

Burnley1

Avg goals against

Notts County2

Burnley0

Clean sheets

Notts County0

Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.9 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

Season data supports Burnley to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Burnley Over 2.5

-Notts County Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Burnley’s defensive struggles, conceding 81 goals in 42 matches with only 10% clean sheets, combined with Notts County’s strong attacking record of 82 goals in 54 matches.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Burnley v Notts County Stats

Match Report

S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Burnley

Notts County

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Burnley v Notts County Stats

Match Report

S such as Double Chance or Draw No Bet, which provide structural safety against competitive variance but deliver lower margins

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Burnley

Notts County

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Prediction context

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