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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Notts County crestNotts County

League Cup | Sat 08 Aug, 15:00

Burnley v Notts County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 07 Aug 2026, 05:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley host Notts County in an intriguing EFL Cup first-round clash where recent form and tactical dynamics challenge league-level assumptions. Burnley, despite Championship status, arrive on the back of a six-match winless streak and defensive frailties, conceding nearly two goals per game last season. Notts County bring strong momentum from League One, boasting a potent attack with 82 goals in 54 matches and a high volume of dangerous attacks. The absence of key Burnley midfielders further exposes their defense, setting the stage for a competitive encounter where both sides have clear routes to goal and the capacity to score.

BT4Y match pick

Both Teams to Score

  • Burnley conceded 81 goals in 42 matches, with clean sheets in only 10% of games.
  • Notts County scored 82 goals in 54 matches, netting in 78% of their fixtures.
  • Notts County average 46.2 dangerous attacks per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
  • Burnley’s midfield absences weaken defensive protection, increasing scoring chances for both sides.
  • Recent form shows Burnley winless in last six home matches; Notts County won three of last six away games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score pick aligns with Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities and Notts County’s strong attacking profile. Burnley’s concession rate of nearly two goals per game and limited clean sheets contrast with Notts County’s frequent scoring and high volume of dangerous attacks. Although the price is slightly short, the tactical context of Burnley’s midfield absences and Notts County’s momentum supports the likelihood of goals at both ends. The thinner data samples for both teams warrant cautious stakes and attention to match developments.

Burnley Defensive Record1.93 goals conceded per game, 10% clean sheets
Strong positive
Notts County Attacking Volume82 goals in 54 matches, 46.2 dangerous attacks per game
Strong positive
Midfield AbsencesBurnley missing key midfielders Ndayishimiye and Cullen
Positive
Recent Form ContrastBurnley winless last six; Notts County strong recent away form
Positive
Price SensitivitySlightly short price with -3.5% value edge
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess clear attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses that make goals likely at both ends. Burnley’s defensive struggles and Notts County’s sustained offensive pressure create a tactical environment favoring scoring from both sides. This pick reflects the balance of form and playing styles rather than league status alone.

Main risk

Their overall goal difference across that sample is therefore a major concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Burnley’s defensive fragility combined with Notts County’s attacking momentum creates a compelling scenario for both sides to find the net, especially given midfield absences that open central spaces.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Burnley conceded 81 goals in 42 matches, with clean sheets in only 10% of games.

Notts County scored 82 goals in 54 matches, netting in 78% of their fixtures.

Notts County average 46.2 dangerous attacks per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

Burnley’s midfield absences weaken defensive protection, increasing scoring chances for both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Recent trends show a moderate frequency of Over 2.5 Goals in matches involving these teams, with Notts County’s games often featuring fewer than three goals but consistent scoring.
  • The tempo and sustained attacks suggest a match likely to produce multiple goals, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Notts County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
The Both Teams to Score market is priced slightly short with an implied chance of 53.5% versus the model’s 50% chance, indicating a cautious approach to staking. The football context of Burnley’s defensive issues and Notts County’s attacking volume supports the pick, but the price reflects bookmaker caution due to pre-season scoring uncertainty.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley-
Avg goals scored
Notts County-
Burnley-
Avg goals conceded
Notts County-
Burnley-
BTTS rate
Notts County-
Burnley-
Over 2.5 goals
Notts County-
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Burnley’s concession rate of 1.93 goals per game and Notts County’s scoring in 78% of matches underpin the expectation of goals from both sides. Notts County’s 46.2 dangerous attacks per game highlight sustained offensive pressure, while Burnley’s midfield absences increase vulnerability, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Burnley yet.

Notts County

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Notts County yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Notts County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Burnley’s recent six-match winless run, including three home draws and three defeats, contrasts sharply with Notts County’s three wins in their last six away games. This form disparity, combined with Burnley’s defensive struggles and Notts County’s attacking , supports an open game with goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Burnley wins
0Draws
0Notts County wins
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
There is no recent head-to-head data between Burnley and Notts County to inform this fixture. Therefore, tactical context, recent form, and season statistics provide the primary guidance for expectations in this match.
Season team stats

League Cup

Burnley0
Played
Notts County0
Burnley0
Avg goals for
Notts County0
Burnley0
Avg goals against
Notts County0
Burnley0
Clean sheets
Notts County0
Best odds for this sectionNotts County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Burnley’s season-long defensive record of conceding nearly two goals per game and only four clean sheets contrasts with Notts County’s better defensive resilience and higher scoring rate. These season stats reveal a tactical mismatch favoring goal-scoring chances for both teams.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Burnley Over 2.5
-Notts County Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show a moderate frequency of Over 2.5 Goals in matches involving these teams, with Notts County’s games often featuring fewer than three goals but consistent scoring. The tempo and sustained attacks suggest a match likely to produce multiple goals, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.