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Brighton crestBrighton
v
Manchester United crestManchester United

Premier League | Sun 24 May, 16:00

Brighton v Manchester United Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brighton face Manchester United in Premier League on Sun 24 May, 16:00. Brighton must win to secure Europa League football and have won four of their last five home matches. What makes Brighton dangerous is their willingness to commit numbers forward without losing structure.

BT4Y best bet

If the game finishes in a 1-1 draw? A 1-1 draw will result in a lost bet for a Match Result & Both Teams to Score selection backed on either team

  • At 7/1, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • What historical trend supports a high-scoring game between these teams?
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Brighton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Manchester United at 1.8.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United, so the goals angle is not just a price call. What historical trend supports a high-scoring game between these teams?

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Brighton and 60%.Visible data support
Positive
Brighton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8.Visible data support
Positive
What historical trend supports a high-scoring game between these.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because what historical trend supports a high-scoring game between these teams? The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Manchester United score consistently but lack defensive stability on the road.

Main risk

Manchester United score consistently but lack defensive stability on the road.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

What historical trend supports a high-scoring game between these teams?

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Brighton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Manchester United at 1.8.

BTTS rates of 40% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brighton1.8
Avg goals scored
Manchester United1.8
Brighton1.2
Avg goals conceded
Manchester United1
Brighton40%
BTTS rate
Manchester United60%
Brighton80%
Over 2.5 goals
Manchester United60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge -0.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 87%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Brighton and 60% for Manchester United, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge -0.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Manchester United to WinBetfred guide price · model 67%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Manchester United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Brighton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brighton7.2
Avg corners for
Manchester United5
Brighton11.6
Avg total corners
Manchester United10.8
Brighton1.2
Avg yellow cards
Manchester United2.4
Brighton14.2
Avg shots
Manchester United14.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.4 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brighton

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
17 May 2026A Leeds0-1
09 May 2026H Wolves3-0
02 May 2026A Newcastle1-3
21 Apr 2026H Chelsea3-0
18 Apr 2026A Tottenham2-2

Manchester United

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
17 May 2026H Nottingham Forest3-2
09 May 2026A Sunderland0-0
03 May 2026H Liverpool3-2
27 Apr 2026H Brentford2-1
18 Apr 2026A Chelsea1-0
Best odds for this sectionManchester United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 26% · edge +40.9 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
2
Check odds @ 2
Manchester United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Brighton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Brighton to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Brighton wins
1Draws
2Manchester United wins
11 Jan 2026Manchester United v Brighton1-2
25 Oct 2025Manchester United v Brighton4-2
19 Jan 2025Manchester United v Brighton1-3
24 Aug 2024Brighton v Manchester United2-1
19 May 2024Brighton v Manchester United0-2
16 Sep 2023Manchester United v Brighton1-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge -0.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Manchester United to WinBetfred guide price · model 67%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Brighton to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Brighton38
Played
Manchester United38
Brighton1.4
Avg goals for
Manchester United1.8
Brighton1.2
Avg goals against
Manchester United1.3
Brighton10
Clean sheets
Manchester United8
Best odds for this sectionManchester United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 26% · edge +40.9 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Manchester United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Brighton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Brighton to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports Manchester United to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Manchester United71382011719
8Brighton53381411136
Brighton sit in position 8, while Manchester United sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Brighton Over 2.5
60%Manchester United Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brighton sit at 80% and Manchester United sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Brighton v Manchester United prediction

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