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Chelsea crestChelsea

Premier League | Tue 21 Apr, 20:00

Brighton v Chelsea Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 01:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brighton face Chelsea in Premier League on Tue 21 Apr, 20:00. In contrast, Chelsea are on a severe downward slide, losing four straight league games. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Brighton’s current superiority and home strength, while acknowledging that Chelsea often find the net despite their poor form. Match Tempo: Shot Volume per Game

BT4Y best bet

Ing one of three outcomes: Home Win (1), Draw (X), or Away Win (2)

  • At 11/8, Brighton Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Brighton's setup looks settled and balanced, while Chelsea's still carries tension because results have stripped away and made every mistake feel heavier.
  • Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Chelsea.
  • Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Brighton sit 8 in the table, while Chelsea sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Brighton Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Chelsea. Brighton's setup looks settled and balanced, while Chelsea's still carries tension because results have stripped away and made every mistake feel heavier.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Brighton's setup looks settled and balanced, while Chelsea's still.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brighton Win is the preferred angle because brighton's setup looks settled and balanced, while Chelsea's still carries tension because results have stripped away and made every mistake feel heavier. Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Chelsea. Brighton like short passes, but there is nothing sterile about them.

Main risk

Brighton like short passes, but there is nothing sterile about them.

Key Data Signals

Brighton Win evidence

Brighton's setup looks settled and balanced, while Chelsea's still carries tension because results have stripped away and made.

Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Chelsea.

Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Brighton sit 8 in the table, while Chelsea sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Brighton Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Brighton1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Chelsea0.8
    Brighton0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Chelsea1.8
    Brighton40%
    BTTS rate
    Chelsea20%
    Brighton40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Chelsea60%

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Brighton

    DWWWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    18 Apr 2026A Tottenham2-2
    11 Apr 2026A Burnley2-0
    21 Mar 2026H Liverpool2-1
    14 Mar 2026A Sunderland1-0
    04 Mar 2026H Arsenal0-1

    Chelsea

    LLLLW
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    18 Apr 2026H Manchester United0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-3
    21 Mar 2026A Everton0-3
    14 Mar 2026H Newcastle0-1
    04 Mar 2026A Aston Villa4-1

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    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Brighton53381411136
    10Chelsea52381410146
    Brighton sit in position 8, while Chelsea sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Brighton Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Brighton3.6
    Avg corners for
    Chelsea7.2
    Brighton10.2
    Avg total corners
    Chelsea11.2
    Brighton2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Chelsea2
    Brighton12.4
    Avg shots
    Chelsea16.4

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    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Brighton wins
    0Draws
    5Chelsea wins
    27 Sep 2025Chelsea v Brighton1-3
    14 Feb 2025Brighton v Chelsea3-0
    08 Feb 2025Brighton v Chelsea2-1
    28 Sep 2024Chelsea v Brighton4-2
    15 May 2024Brighton v Chelsea1-2
    03 Dec 2023Chelsea v Brighton3-2

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    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Brighton38
    Played
    Chelsea38
    Brighton1.4
    Avg goals for
    Chelsea1.5
    Brighton1.2
    Avg goals against
    Chelsea1.4
    Brighton10
    Clean sheets
    Chelsea9

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    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Brighton Over 2.5
    60%Chelsea Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brighton sit at 40% and Chelsea sit at 60% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

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