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Brentford crestBrentford
v
West Ham crestWest Ham

Premier League | Sat 02 May, 15:00

Brentford v West Ham Stats

Data last updated: Thu 02 Jul 2026, 18:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brentford face West Ham in Premier League on Sat 02 May, 15:00. With West Ham showing revitalised resilience in their recent unbeaten run, another closely fought London derby stalemate appears highly probable at the Gtech Community Stadium.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 13/2, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 55%.
  • Goals are becoming harder to come by too — the last three meetings between the sides have all produced under 2.5 goals.
  • West Ham are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Brentford at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Brentford and 40% for West Ham show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 55% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. West Ham are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Brentford at 1. Goals are becoming harder to come by too — the last three meetings between the sides have all produced under 2.5 goals.

Model chance vs price55% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
West Ham are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 60% for Brentford and 40% for West.Visible data support
Positive
Goals are becoming harder to come by too —.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because goals are becoming harder to come by too — the last three meetings between the sides have all produced under 2.5 goals. West Ham are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Brentford at 1. Brentford have drawn five of their last six matches, proving difficult to beat but struggling to find a clinical edge.

Main risk

Brentford have drawn five of their last six matches, proving difficult to beat but struggling to find a clinical edge.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Goals are becoming harder to come by too — the last three meetings between the sides have all.

West Ham are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Brentford at 1.

BTTS rates of 60% for Brentford and 40% for West Ham show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brentford1
Avg goals scored
West Ham1.4
Brentford1.2
Avg goals conceded
West Ham0.8
Brentford60%
BTTS rate
West Ham40%
Brentford60%
Over 2.5 goals
West Ham40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 42% · edge +12.7 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brentford

LDDDD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
27 Apr 2026A Manchester United1-2
18 Apr 2026H Fulham0-0
11 Apr 2026H Everton2-2
21 Mar 2026A Leeds0-0
16 Mar 2026H Wolves2-2

West Ham

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
25 Apr 2026H Everton2-1
20 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace0-0
10 Apr 2026H Wolves4-0
22 Mar 2026A Aston Villa0-2
14 Mar 2026H Manchester City1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 51% · edge +32.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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West Ham to WinBetUK guide price · model 63%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Brentford to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Brentford53381411133
18West Ham393810919-19
Brentford sit in position 9, while West Ham sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2.5 Goals assessment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionWest Ham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 26% · edge +37.2 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
West Ham to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brentford4.4
Avg corners for
West Ham4.2
Brentford9.2
Avg total corners
West Ham10.4
Brentford1.2
Avg yellow cards
West Ham1.8
Brentford11.6
Avg shots
West Ham9.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Brentford wins
2Draws
2West Ham wins
09 Mar 2026West Ham v Brentford2-2
20 Oct 2025West Ham v Brentford0-2
15 Feb 2025West Ham v Brentford0-1
28 Sep 2024Brentford v West Ham1-1
26 Feb 2024West Ham v Brentford4-2
04 Nov 2023Brentford v West Ham3-2
Best odds for this sectionWest Ham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 26% · edge +37.2 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Brentford to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head sample gives context for West Ham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Premier League

Brentford38
Played
West Ham38
Brentford1.4
Avg goals for
West Ham1.2
Brentford1.4
Avg goals against
West Ham1.7
Brentford10
Clean sheets
West Ham7
Best odds for this sectionWest Ham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 26% · edge +37.2 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Brentford to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season data supports West Ham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Brentford Over 2.5
40%West Ham Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brentford sit at 60% and West Ham sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.