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Brentford crestBrentford
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Brentford v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 21:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brentford host Nottingham Forest in a Premier League clash where both teams seek to end frustrating runs. Brentford, with a stronger attacking record and home advantage, aim to capitalize on Forest's scoring struggles and recent four-match winless streak. Forest, positioned in the relegation zone, face pressure to improve their attack under Oliver Glasner. Brentford's challenge lies in maintaining leads, having dropped points after scoring first in several matches. The encounter promises a tactical battle with Brentford's offensive threat pitted against Forest's defensive vulnerabilities and need for points.

BT4Y best bet

Brentford to Win

  • Brentford have scored 13 goals in seven league matches, more than double Forest's six in eight.
  • Nottingham Forest are winless in their last four league games and sit in the relegation zone.
  • Kevin Schade leads Brentford's attack with three league goals and strong shot accuracy.
  • Forest have conceded 10 goals in eight matches, highlighting defensive frailties.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Brentford to win with a 59% chance, reflecting their superior attacking output and home advantage. Brentford's ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Nottingham Forest's struggles to score, evidenced by their low goal tally and recent winless run. The price at 2.1 offers positive value, as the implied chance is 47.6%, below the model's . Brentford's vulnerability in protecting leads is noted but outweighed by Forest's limited offensive threat and defensive lapses. This balance makes Brentford the logical choice for victory in this fixture.

Attacking StrengthBrentford's 13 league goals vs Forest's 6
Strong positive
Recent FormBrentford 6 points last 5 matches, Forest 4 points
Positive
Defensive WeaknessForest conceded 10 goals in 8 matches
Positive
Price Value59% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Brentford's superior attacking firepower and home advantage make them the favored side to secure victory. Their ability to create quality chances contrasts with Nottingham Forest's ongoing difficulties in front of goal, making Brentford's win the most plausible outcome based on tactical and form considerations.

Main risk

Their positive goal difference underlines their competitiveness, although four draws demonstrate how frequently promising performances have gone unrewarded.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Brentford's consistent goal threat and Forest's scoring woes set the stage for a home win, but Brentford must manage game control carefully to avoid dropping points after taking the lead.”

Key Data Signals

Brentford to Win evidence

Brentford have scored 13 goals in seven league matches, more than double Forest's six in eight.

Nottingham Forest are winless in their last four league games and sit in the relegation zone.

Kevin Schade leads Brentford's attack with three league goals and strong shot accuracy.

Forest have conceded 10 goals in eight matches, highlighting defensive frailties.

What To Watch In The Data

Brentford to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Brentford's recent matches show an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Forest's rate is 40%, suggesting the fixture could produce a lively tempo with goal-scoring opportunities, especially from Brentford's side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brentford1.8
Avg goals scored
Nottingham Forest0.8
Brentford1.4
Avg goals conceded
Nottingham Forest1.4
Brentford80%
BTTS rate
Nottingham Forest60%
Brentford80%
Over 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have contrasting goal records, with Brentford scoring frequently and Forest struggling to find the net. Forest's inability to keep clean sheets in recent matches and Brentford's attacking prowess suggest a possibility of goals from both sides, though Forest's low conversion rate tempers this. The BTTS market reflects this tension between Brentford's threat and Forest's scoring challenges.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Brentford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 59% for Brentford to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nottingham Forest. Brentford surrendered advantages in both matches, drawing 2-2 at Villa Park before suffering a 2-1 home defeat against Liverpool after finishing with nine men.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brentford

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 1L
25 Oct 2026A Hull City1-1
17 Oct 2026H Liverpool1-2
10 Oct 2026A Aston Villa2-2
18 Sep 2026H Chelsea3-0
12 Sep 2026A Bournemouth2-2

Nottingham Forest

DLLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 4L
23 Oct 2026A Ipswich1-1
18 Oct 2026H Arsenal0-1
11 Oct 2026A Crystal Palace1-3
19 Sep 2026H Coventry0-1
12 Sep 2026A Aston Villa2-1
Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Brentford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Brentford have accumulated 6 points in their last five matches, showing more consistent form compared to Nottingham Forest's 4 points. Brentford's recent results include a strong attacking display but also reveal vulnerabilities in protecting leads. Forest's ongoing winless streak in the league highlights their struggles to convert chances into points, reinforcing Brentford's edge in momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Brentford Over 2.5
40%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Brentford's recent matches show an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Forest's rate is 40%, suggesting the fixture could produce a lively tempo with goal-scoring opportunities, especially from Brentford's side.

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