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Brentford crestBrentford
v
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

Premier League | Sun 17 May, 15:00

Brentford v Crystal Palace Stats

Data last updated: Mon 22 Jun 2026, 11:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brentford face Crystal Palace in Premier League on Sun 17 May, 15:00. Thiago has scored 13 goals in 18 home league matches and has 22 goals from 43 shots on target. Brentford have won seven of eight home victories with 3+ goals scored.

BT4Y best bet

Brentford Win

  • At 23/10, Brentford Win implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • Palace arrive after conceding three goals in each of their last three away trips.
  • Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Crystal Palace.
  • Brentford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Brentford Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Brentford sit 9 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Brentford Win sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Crystal Palace. Palace arrive after conceding three goals in each of their last three away trips.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Strong positive
Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Brentford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Palace arrive after conceding three goals in each of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brentford Win is the preferred angle because palace arrive after conceding three goals in each of their last three away trips. Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Crystal Palace. The biggest concern for Palace is emotional energy.

Main risk

The biggest concern for Palace is emotional energy.

Key Data Signals

Brentford Win evidence

Palace arrive after conceding three goals in each of their last three away trips.

Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Crystal Palace.

Brentford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Brentford Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Brentford sit 9 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Brentford Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Brentford1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Crystal Palace0.6
    Brentford1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Crystal Palace2.2
    Brentford40%
    BTTS rate
    Crystal Palace40%
    Brentford80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Crystal Palace80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 82% vs implied 83% · edge -1.3 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Brentford and 80% for Crystal Palace, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Brentford to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Brentford4.6
    Avg corners for
    Crystal Palace4.4
    Brentford10.4
    Avg total corners
    Crystal Palace11.8
    Brentford1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Crystal Palace1.8
    Brentford12
    Avg shots
    Crystal Palace11.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.3 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Brentford

    LWLDD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    09 May 2026A Manchester City0-3
    02 May 2026H West Ham3-0
    27 Apr 2026A Manchester United1-2
    18 Apr 2026H Fulham0-0
    11 Apr 2026H Everton2-2

    Crystal Palace

    LDLLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    13 May 2026A Manchester City0-3
    10 May 2026H Everton2-2
    03 May 2026A Bournemouth0-3
    25 Apr 2026A Liverpool1-3
    20 Apr 2026H West Ham0-0
    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Brentford wins
    5Draws
    2Crystal Palace wins
    01 Nov 2025Crystal Palace v Brentford2-0
    26 Jan 2025Crystal Palace v Brentford1-2
    18 Aug 2024Brentford v Crystal Palace2-1
    30 Dec 2023Crystal Palace v Brentford3-1
    26 Aug 2023Brentford v Crystal Palace1-1
    18 Feb 2023Brentford v Crystal Palace1-1
    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Brentford to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Brentford38
    Played
    Crystal Palace38
    Brentford1.4
    Avg goals for
    Crystal Palace1.1
    Brentford1.4
    Avg goals against
    Crystal Palace1.3
    Brentford10
    Clean sheets
    Crystal Palace12
    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Season data supports Brentford to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Brentford53381411133
    15Crystal Palace4538111215-10
    Brentford sit in position 9, while Crystal Palace sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Brentford Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Brentford Over 2.5
    80%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brentford sit at 80% and Crystal Palace sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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