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Bradford crestBradford
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

League One | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Bradford v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bradford and Stevenage meet in a League One clash where defensive solidity is a key feature for both sides. Bradford, sitting second in the table, have conceded just 0.2 goals per game recently, while Stevenage, ninth, also show a strong defensive record with 0.6 goals conceded per match. Both teams have struggled to score freely, with Bradford averaging 0.8 goals and Stevenage 1.6. This tactical setup suggests a cautious encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities, emphasizing defensive organization and controlled tempo.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Bradford concede only 0.2 goals per game, indicating strong defensive form.
  • Stevenage average 1.6 goals scored but have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, showing occasional attacking bursts.
  • Bradford’s recent matches have produced no games over 2.5 goals, highlighting a low-scoring trend.
  • Stevenage’s average shots on target (4.4) suggest some offensive threat but not consistently high scoring.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7, slightly above the under 2.5 threshold, but recent form favors fewer goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive strengths and recent low-scoring trends of both teams. Bradford’s exceptional defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game, strongly supports a low-goal outcome. Stevenage’s moderate attacking output is balanced by their own defensive discipline. The price offers positive value with a 6.1% edge, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible choice given the tactical caution and scoring patterns. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Bradford Defensive Record0.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Stevenage Offensive Output1.6 goals scored per game
Neutral
Recent Over 2.5 Rate Bradford0%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate Stevenage40%
Neutral
Model Probability66% model chance vs 60.6% implied (+5.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Bradford’s tight defensive form and Stevenage’s inconsistent attack. The match is likely to be tactically cautious with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome. Defensive discipline and recent scoring trends strongly favor this selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and cautious tactics

“Bradford’s defensive resilience combined with Stevenage’s moderate attacking threat sets the stage for a low-scoring encounter where goals will be hard to come by.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Bradford concede only 0.2 goals per game, indicating strong defensive form.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, slightly above the 2.5 threshold, but recent trends and team form indicate a slowing tempo and fewer goals.
  • The Over 2.5 Goals rate varies, but the defensive strengths and tactical caution forecast a match more likely to stay under the goal limit in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bradford0.8
Avg goals scored
Stevenage1.6
Bradford0.2
Avg goals conceded
Stevenage0.6
Bradford20%
BTTS rate
Stevenage40%
Bradford0%
Over 2.5 goals
Stevenage40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 36%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show restrained scoring patterns, with Bradford averaging 0.8 goals and Stevenage 1.6 per game. Bradford’s BTTS rate is low at 20%, while Stevenage’s is 40%, indicating Bradford’s matches often end with clean sheets. The goal trends and BTTS data support a low-scoring game with limited goal exchanges.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionStevenage Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 39% · edge +12.8 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bradford to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (+5.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Bradford and 40% for Stevenage, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bradford

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Leyton Orient0-0
03 Oct 2026A Reading1-1
19 Sep 2026A Luton1-0
12 Sep 2026A Notts County1-0
05 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town1-0

Stevenage

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Wigan1-0
19 Sep 2026A Leyton Orient0-1
10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1
01 Sep 2026A Peterborough0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Stevenage Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bradford to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Bradford’s recent form includes 11 points with a very low goals-against average of 0.2, showing defensive strength. Stevenage’s 10 points and 0.6 goals conceded per game indicate solid but less stringent defense. Bradford’s zero over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with Stevenage’s 40%, but overall form favors a cautious, low-scoring contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Bradford Over 2.5
40%Stevenage Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, slightly above the 2.5 threshold, but recent trends and team form indicate a slowing tempo and fewer goals. The Over 2.5 Goals rate varies, but the defensive strengths and tactical caution forecast a match more likely to stay under the goal limit in this fixture.

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