Bournemouth

Manchester City

Premier League | Tue 19 May, 19:30

Bournemouth v Manchester City Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 02:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bournemouth face Manchester City in Premier League on Tue 19 May, 19:30. Manchester City have won all nine Premier League home meetings with Bournemouth, scoring 34 goals at an average of 3.8 per game.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Man City to win and both teams to score

Price warning: current odds imply about 40%, above the 30% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
At 6/4, Man City to win and both teams to score implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
Manchester City’s flawless home record against Bournemouth and Erling Haaland’s strong early-season scoring underpin this pick.
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bournemouth and 40% for Manchester City.
Man City to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Bournemouth and 2.4 for Manchester City are central to the read.

Price warning

Man City to win and both teams to score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 40% while the model sits nearer 30% (-10.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Bournemouth to Win shows a +15 pts edge at 4.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 30% for Man City to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bournemouth and 40% for Manchester City. Manchester City’s flawless home record against Bournemouth and Erling Haaland’s strong early-season scoring underpin this pick.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 40% implied

Negative

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support

Positive

Man City to win and both teams to score needs.Visible data support

Positive

Manchester City’s flawless home record against Bournemouth and Erling.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester City Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because manchester City’s flawless home record against Bournemouth and Erling Haaland’s strong early-season scoring underpin this pick. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bournemouth and 40% for Manchester City. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Man City to win and both teams to score evidence

Manchester City’s flawless home record against Bournemouth and Erling Haaland’s strong early-season scoring underpin this pick.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bournemouth and 40% for Manchester City.

Manchester City Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Bournemouth and 2.4 for Manchester City are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Man City to win and both teams to score notes

Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bournemouth5

Avg corners for

Manchester City9.4

Bournemouth10

Avg total corners

Manchester City13.2

Bournemouth2.4

Avg yellow cards

Manchester City1.4

Bournemouth12.6

Avg shots

Manchester City20.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 48% · edge +8.1 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Premier League hub Bournemouth v Manchester City prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth2

Avg goals scored

Manchester City2.4

Bournemouth0.8

Avg goals conceded

Manchester City0.8

Bournemouth60%

BTTS rate

Manchester City40%

Bournemouth80%

Over 2.5 goals

Manchester City80%

Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 89% · edge -1.3 pts

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Bournemouth and 80% for Manchester City, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickManchester City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4.2 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Manchester City to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Manchester City Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

WWDWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 6D 0L

09 May 2026A Fulham1-0

03 May 2026H Crystal Palace3-0

22 Apr 2026H Leeds2-2

18 Apr 2026A Newcastle2-1

11 Apr 2026A Arsenal2-1

Manchester City

WWDWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 107W 3D 0L

13 May 2026H Crystal Palace3-0

09 May 2026H Brentford3-0

04 May 2026A Everton3-3

22 Apr 2026A Burnley1-0

19 Apr 2026H Arsenal2-1

Market aligned with main pickManchester City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4.2 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Manchester City to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Bournemouth wins

0Draws

9Manchester City wins

02 Nov 2025Manchester City v Bournemouth3-1

20 May 2025Manchester City v Bournemouth3-1

30 Mar 2025Bournemouth v Manchester City1-2

02 Nov 2024Bournemouth v Manchester City2-1

24 Feb 2024Bournemouth v Manchester City0-1

04 Nov 2023Manchester City v Bournemouth6-1

Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 61% · edge -16.6 pts

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

The head-to-head sample gives context for Manchester City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

Premier League

Bournemouth38

Played

Manchester City38

Bournemouth1.5

Avg goals for

Manchester City2

Bournemouth1.4

Avg goals against

Manchester City0.9

Bournemouth11

Clean sheets

Manchester City16

Market aligned with main pickManchester City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4.2 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Manchester City to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Season data supports Manchester City Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Manchester City	78	38	23	9	6	42
6	Bournemouth	57	38	13	18	7	4

Bournemouth sit in position 6, while Manchester City sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Man City to win and both teams to score assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Bournemouth Over 2.5

80%Manchester City Over 2.5

3.7H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bournemouth sit at 80% and Manchester City sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Bournemouth v Manchester City Stats

Match Report

Man City to win and both teams to score

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Bournemouth

Manchester City

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Football Stats Hub

Bournemouth v Manchester City Stats

Match Report

Man City to win and both teams to score

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Bournemouth

Manchester City

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