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Bournemouth crestBournemouth
v
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

Premier League | Sun 03 May, 14:00

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Stats

Data last updated: Sun 31 May 2026, 05:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bournemouth face Crystal Palace in Premier League on Sun 03 May, 14:00. There’s a peculiar tension surrounding this clash at the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth enter this clash on a 14-match unbeaten streak and hold a strong home record with only two defeats in 17 at the Vitality.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ing the outcome of the game after 90 minutes: a Bournemouth win, a Draw, or a Crystal Palace win

  • At 4/7, Bournemouth Win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Efficiency Metrics: Draws and Home Strength
  • Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Crystal Palace.
  • Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Bournemouth Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Bournemouth sit 6 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ing the outcome of the game after 90 minutes: a Bournemouth win, a Draw, or a Crystal Palace win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 49% (-14.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +39.2 pts edge at 3.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 49% for Bournemouth Win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Crystal Palace. Efficiency Metrics: Draws and Home Strength

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Efficiency Metrics: Draws and Home StrengthArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bournemouth Win is the preferred angle because efficiency Metrics: Draws and Home Strength Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Crystal Palace. That doesn’t mean they won’t compete—but it might mean they don’t chase the game with the same desperation.

Main risk

That doesn’t mean they won’t compete—but it might mean they don’t chase the game with the same desperation.

Key Data Signals

Bournemouth Win evidence

Efficiency Metrics: Draws and Home Strength

Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Crystal Palace.

Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Bournemouth Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Bournemouth sit 6 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Bournemouth Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Bournemouth6
    Avg corners for
    Crystal Palace5
    Bournemouth11.2
    Avg total corners
    Crystal Palace9.8
    Bournemouth2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Crystal Palace1.8
    Bournemouth15
    Avg shots
    Crystal Palace11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Bournemouth1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Crystal Palace1.2
    Bournemouth1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Crystal Palace1
    Bournemouth80%
    BTTS rate
    Crystal Palace60%
    Bournemouth80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Crystal Palace60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 31% · edge +39.2 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 62% · edge -12.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Bournemouth to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Bournemouth

    DWWDD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 7D 0L
    22 Apr 2026H Leeds2-2
    18 Apr 2026A Newcastle2-1
    11 Apr 2026A Arsenal2-1
    20 Mar 2026H Manchester United2-2
    14 Mar 2026A Burnley0-0

    Crystal Palace

    LDWDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    25 Apr 2026A Liverpool1-3
    20 Apr 2026H West Ham0-0
    12 Apr 2026H Newcastle2-1
    15 Mar 2026H Leeds0-0
    05 Mar 2026A Tottenham3-1
    Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 62% · edge -12.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Bournemouth wins
    4Draws
    4Crystal Palace wins
    18 Oct 2025Crystal Palace v Bournemouth3-3
    19 Apr 2025Crystal Palace v Bournemouth0-0
    26 Dec 2024Bournemouth v Crystal Palace0-0
    02 Apr 2024Bournemouth v Crystal Palace1-0
    06 Dec 2023Crystal Palace v Bournemouth0-2
    13 May 2023Crystal Palace v Bournemouth2-0
    Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 62% · edge -12.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Bournemouth to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Bournemouth38
    Played
    Crystal Palace38
    Bournemouth1.5
    Avg goals for
    Crystal Palace1.1
    Bournemouth1.4
    Avg goals against
    Crystal Palace1.3
    Bournemouth11
    Clean sheets
    Crystal Palace12
    Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 62% · edge -12.5 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Bournemouth to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Bournemouth5738131874
    15Crystal Palace4538111215-10
    Bournemouth sit in position 6, while Crystal Palace sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Bournemouth Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Bournemouth Over 2.5
    60%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
    1.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bournemouth sit at 80% and Crystal Palace sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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