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Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP
v
Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Mon 06 Jul, 23:00

Botafogo SP v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Sun 05 Jul 2026, 03:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo SP and Avai meet in a Serie B clash where both teams are struggling near the bottom of the table, with Botafogo SP sitting 17th and Avai 18th. Botafogo SP has shown a tendency to create more attacking pressure, averaging 7.8 corners per game compared to Avai's 2.2. Avai's defensive vulnerabilities and Botafogo SP's home intent suggest a match with sustained territorial battles and set-piece opportunities. Both sides have had mixed recent form, but the corner count is expected to be a key feature of this fixture.

BT4Y match pick

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Botafogo SP averages 7.8 corners per game, significantly higher than Avai's 2.2
  • Recent form shows Botafogo SP's attacking pressure leads to more set-piece chances
  • Both teams have defensive frailties that can lead to sustained pressure and corners
  • Match tempo and tactical setup favor frequent wide attacks and deliveries into the box

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 75% chance for Over 8.5 Corners based on Botafogo SP's strong corner average of 7.8 per game combined with Avai's defensive style that concedes set-piece opportunities. Botafogo SP's attacking players like Everton Morelli and Hygor contribute to sustained pressure and shot volume, increasing corner likelihood. Avai's lower corner count is offset by Botafogo SP's control in territory and set-piece creation. The model views this as a standard stake bet with solid and no price warnings.

Botafogo SP corner average7.8 per game
Strong positive
Avai corner average2.2 per game
Neutral
Model chance75%
Strong positive
Recent attacking pressureHigh for Botafogo SP
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect Botafogo SP to dominate territory and force numerous corners given their strong set-piece creation and Avai's defensive struggles. The data supports a high corner count as Botafogo SP's attacking players consistently generate pressure and wide deliveries, making Over 8.5 Corners a tactically sound choice.

Main risk

The main risk is a possible low-tempo game with fewer wide attacks than usual, which could reduce corner opportunities.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“Botafogo SP's ability to consistently win corners through sustained pressure and Avai's defensive setup makes Over 8.5 Corners a compelling market to watch in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Botafogo SP averages 7.8 corners per game, significantly higher than Avai's 2.2

Recent form shows Botafogo SP's attacking pressure leads to more set-piece chances

Both teams have defensive frailties that can lead to sustained pressure and corners

Match tempo and tactical setup favor frequent wide attacks and deliveries into the box

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • In the last eight meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, the corner trend is more pronounced with Botafogo SP's high corner averages in recent matches, suggesting a tempo favoring set-piece opportunities rather than open high-scoring games.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo SP7.8
Avg corners for
Avai2.2
Botafogo SP13.8
Avg total corners
Avai11.6
Botafogo SP2.6
Avg yellow cards
Avai2
Botafogo SP16.6
Avg shots
Avai7.4
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 77% · edge -1.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Botafogo SP averages 16.6 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, reflecting attacking intent that often leads to corners. Avai's lower shot count and defensive fouling profile (2 yellows per game) suggest Botafogo SP will have territorial control, resulting in more corners and set-piece situations.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo SP0.6
Avg goals scored
Avai1
Botafogo SP0.6
Avg goals conceded
Avai1.6
Botafogo SP20%
BTTS rate
Avai60%
Botafogo SP20%
Over 2.5 goals
Avai60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams have low scoring rates and Botafogo SP has a 20% BTTS rate compared to Avai's 60%, indicating a controlled goal environment. This suggests the match may focus more on build-up and set-pieces rather than open high-scoring play, aligning with a corners-focused market rather than goals or BTTS.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 77% · edge -1.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Avai Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Avai to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The Over 8.5 Corners market is priced without clear data but the model's 75% chance indicates a strong statistical base. Botafogo SP's high corner average combined with Avai's defensive tendencies suggests the price is fair and worth a standard stake without significant .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo SP

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
01 Jul 2026H CRB0-1
20 Jun 2026A Ceara1-0
14 Jun 2026H Operario-PR2-1
09 Jun 2026A Vila Nova0-1
01 Jun 2026A Ponte Preta0-0

Avai

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
28 Jun 2026A Athletic Club0-1
21 Jun 2026H Cuiaba1-0
16 Jun 2026A Londrina2-3
11 Jun 2026A Ceara1-2
30 May 2026H Criciuma1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 85% · edge +1.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Avai Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Avai to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Botafogo SP has earned 7 points recently with a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, but their corner count remains high due to attacking pressure. Avai's recent form is weaker with 3 points and a higher over 2.5 goals rate of 60%, though their corner average remains low. This contrast supports a match with many corners but fewer goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Botafogo SP wins
3Draws
4Avai wins
23 Nov 2025Botafogo SP v Avai0-0
28 Jul 2025Avai v Botafogo SP5-0
19 Nov 2024Botafogo SP v Avai1-3
31 Jul 2024Avai v Botafogo SP1-1
07 Oct 2023Botafogo SP v Avai0-1
11 Jun 2023Avai v Botafogo SP1-1
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.7 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avai to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows an average of 2 goals per game, indicating balanced scoring but does not strongly influence corner expectations. The corner statistics and current form provide a more reliable guide for this market than past results.
Season team stats

Serie B

Botafogo SP15
Played
Avai15
Botafogo SP0.9
Avg goals for
Avai1
Botafogo SP0.9
Avg goals against
Avai1.4
Botafogo SP3
Clean sheets
Avai5
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.7 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Avai Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Avai to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over the season, Botafogo SP's average of 7.8 corners per game is among the highest in the league, reflecting their attacking style and wing play. Avai's 2.2 corners per game is low, but Botafogo SP's control in possession and set-piece creation strongly supports the Over 8.5 Corners market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Botafogo SP16154470
18Avai1315348-6
Both teams are near the bottom of Serie B, increasing the stakes for points and encouraging Botafogo SP to press forward aggressively at home. This urgency typically leads to more attacking plays and corners as Botafogo SP seeks to break down Avai's defense.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
60%Avai Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last eight meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring. However, the corner trend is more pronounced with Botafogo SP's high corner averages in recent matches, suggesting a tempo favoring set-piece opportunities rather than open high-scoring games.

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Fixture links

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