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Bologna crestBologna
v
Monza crestMonza

Serie A | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00

Bologna v Monza Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bologna hosts Monza in a Serie A clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Bologna's recent form shows a solid goal-scoring rate with 10 points and 2 goals scored in their last matches, while Monza, despite sitting lower in the table, has been involved in high-scoring affairs, boasting a 100% Over 2.5 rate recently. Both teams have shown defensive frailties, with Monza conceding 2.2 goals per game and Bologna 1.4, suggesting a lively encounter with multiple goal opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Bologna has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Monza 100%.
  • Both teams average 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goals at both ends.
  • Monza averages 14.33 shots per game, Bologna 9.75, reflecting attacking pressure.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, supporting a goal-rich game.
  • Key players like S. Mbangula and Gustavo Varela contribute strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at 65.4% chance, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, offering nearly 10% . Bologna and Monza's recent matches show high goal involvement and BTTS rates, with Monza's perfect Over 2.5 record recently particularly notable. Both teams' defensive records are porous, and attacking players such as S. Mbangula and Gustavo Varela provide consistent shot and goal threats, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring game. No data limitations or price warnings apply, making this a solid value pick.

Model Chance65.4% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+9.8 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance65.4% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+9.8 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesBologna 60%, Monza 100%
Strong positive
BTTS RatesBoth 80%
Strong positive
Key Player Goal ThreatS. Mbangula 3 goals, Gustavo Varela 1.04 goals per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Bologna and Monza both show tendencies for games with multiple goals. Bologna's balanced recent form and Monza's aggressive shot volume suggest a lively contest with chances at both ends. The statistical profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as a strong tactical and data-driven pick for this fixture.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Monza's poor defence means Bologna could score multiple times, exceeding 1-1 prediction.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice given the volume of shots and goal threats from key players on both teams.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Bologna has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Monza 100%.

Both teams average 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goals at both ends.

Monza averages 14.33 shots per game, Bologna 9.75, reflecting attacking pressure.

Head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.14, supporting a trend toward multiple goals.
  • Recent form trends show Monza's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, while Bologna's matches also lean toward higher scoring.
  • This trend panel indicates a tempo and tactical openness conducive to a goal-rich fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bologna2
Avg goals scored
Monza2
Bologna1.4
Avg goals conceded
Monza2.2
Bologna80%
BTTS rate
Monza80%
Bologna60%
Over 2.5 goals
Monza100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have strong BTTS rates at 80%, and recent matches show consistent goal scoring and conceding. Bologna's 60% Over 2.5 rate combined with Monza's perfect 100% rate recently highlights a fixture prone to multiple goals and open play, with attacking players frequently finding the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bologna to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Monza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 65.4% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+9.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Bologna and 100% for Monza, so the goals angle is not just a price call. His eight Serie A goals prove Monza can convert their chances, and a Bologna defence that has conceded 12 times in nine matches offers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bologna

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
28 Oct 2026A AC Milan4-2
24 Oct 2026A Cagliari2-0
17 Oct 2026H Inter1-3
11 Oct 2026A Lecce2-1
19 Sep 2026H Torino1-1

Monza

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 6L
28 Oct 2026H Napoli1-4
23 Oct 2026A Torino2-3
19 Oct 2026H Cagliari4-0
11 Oct 2026A Lazio1-3
18 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 86% · edge +0.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Bologna to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Monza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Bologna's recent form includes 10 points with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, showing a tendency for matches with multiple goals. Monza's recent 6 points come alongside a perfect 100% Over 2.5 rate, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter. Both teams have conceded goals regularly, supporting the likelihood of an open game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bologna Over 2.5
100%Monza Over 2.5
2.14H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.14, supporting a trend toward multiple goals. Recent form trends show Monza's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, while Bologna's matches also lean toward higher scoring. This trend panel indicates a tempo and tactical openness conducive to a goal-rich fixture.

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