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Serie A | Sun 03 May, 11:30

Bologna v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026, 17:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bologna face Cagliari in Serie A on Sun 03 May, 11:30. With both teams missing key attacking personnel, a 1-1 stalemate balances Bologna’s home dominance in this fixture against their current inability to secure wins at the Dall'Ara. Cagliari have conceded 29 goals on the road this season, contributing to three consecutive away losses.

BT4Y best bet

Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw

  • At 11/2, Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Bologna have lost seven of their last nine home matches and failed to score in their last two outings.
  • Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw angle more than a raw.
  • Bologna sit 8 in the table, while Cagliari sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw angle more than a raw.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Strong positive
Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Bologna sit 8 in the table, while Cagliari sit 14.Visible data support
Positive
Bologna have lost seven of their last nine home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bologna Win is the preferred angle because bologna have lost seven of their last nine home matches and failed to score in their last two outings. Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bologna Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Options like Semih Kilicsoy or Andrea Belotti may step in, but the chemistry and sharpness of last week will be hard to replicate.

Main risk

Options like Semih Kilicsoy or Andrea Belotti may step in, but the chemistry and sharpness of last week will be hard to replicate.

Key Data Signals

Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw evidence

Bologna have lost seven of their last nine home matches and failed to score in their last two.

Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bologna Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Bologna sit 8 in the table, while Cagliari sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Bologna0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Cagliari1
    Bologna1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Cagliari1.6
    Bologna20%
    BTTS rate
    Cagliari40%
    Bologna20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cagliari60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 52% · edge -9.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Bologna to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Bologna4.5
    Avg corners for
    Cagliari4.6
    Bologna9.5
    Avg total corners
    Cagliari9.4
    Bologna0.25
    Avg yellow cards
    Cagliari1
    Bologna11
    Avg shots
    Cagliari10.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Bologna

    LLWWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 0D 4L
    25 Apr 2026H AS Roma0-2
    19 Apr 2026A Juventus0-2
    12 Apr 2026H Lecce2-0
    05 Apr 2026A Cremonese2-1
    22 Mar 2026H Lazio0-2

    Cagliari

    WLWLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    27 Apr 2026H Atalanta3-2
    17 Apr 2026A Inter0-3
    11 Apr 2026H Cremonese1-0
    04 Apr 2026A Sassuolo1-2
    20 Mar 2026H Napoli0-1
    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 52% · edge -9.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7Bologna wins
    0Draws
    3Cagliari wins
    19 Oct 2025Cagliari v Bologna0-2
    02 Mar 2025Bologna v Cagliari2-1
    29 Oct 2024Cagliari v Bologna0-2
    14 Jan 2024Cagliari v Bologna2-1
    02 Sep 2023Bologna v Cagliari2-1
    20 Oct 2022Bologna v Cagliari1-0
    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 52% · edge -9.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Bologna to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Bologna38
    Played
    Cagliari38
    Bologna1.3
    Avg goals for
    Cagliari1.1
    Bologna1.2
    Avg goals against
    Cagliari1.4
    Bologna12
    Clean sheets
    Cagliari8
    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 52% · edge -9.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Season data supports Bologna to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Bologna5638168143
    14Cagliari4338111017-13
    Bologna sit in position 8, while Cagliari sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Wins if Cagliari either win the match outright or the game ends in a draw assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Bologna Over 2.5
    60%Cagliari Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bologna sit at 20% and Cagliari sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Bologna v Cagliari prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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