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Benfica crestBenfica
v
SC Braga crestSC Braga

Primeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15

Benfica v SC Braga Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 19:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica face SC Braga in Primeira Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:15. However, Braga’s consistency in front of goal—scoring in 17 consecutive league games—suggests the visitors will find the net, especially given Benfica’s defensive suspensions involving Otamendi and Rios.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica Win

  • At 21/10, Benfica Win implies roughly 32%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Benfica’s home firepower and the return of 21-goal Pavlidis should see them edge this contest.
  • Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for SC Braga.
  • Benfica have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Benfica Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Benfica sit 3 in the table, while SC Braga sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Benfica Win sits against roughly 32% implied by the current price. Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for SC Braga. Benfica’s home firepower and the return of 21-goal Pavlidis should see them edge this contest.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 32% implied
Strong positive
Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Benfica have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Benfica’s home firepower and the return of 21-goal Pavlidis.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win is the preferred angle because benfica’s home firepower and the return of 21-goal Pavlidis should see them edge this contest. Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for SC Braga. The Primeira Liga title is already gone, but Benfica’s season is still balanced delicately on the edge of something significant.

Main risk

The Primeira Liga title is already gone, but Benfica’s season is still balanced delicately on the edge of something significant.

Key Data Signals

Benfica Win evidence

Benfica’s home firepower and the return of 21-goal Pavlidis should see them edge this contest.

Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for SC Braga.

Benfica have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Benfica Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Benfica sit 3 in the table, while SC Braga sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Benfica9.6
    Avg corners for
    SC Braga4.4
    Benfica12.6
    Avg total corners
    SC Braga8.2
    Benfica1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    SC Braga2.8
    Benfica16.4
    Avg shots
    SC Braga7.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Benfica2.2
    Avg goals scored
    SC Braga1.2
    Benfica1
    Avg goals conceded
    SC Braga1
    Benfica80%
    BTTS rate
    SC Braga60%
    Benfica60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    SC Braga40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 29% · edge +46.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Benfica to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Benfica

    DWWWD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    02 May 2026A Famalicao2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Moreirense4-1
    19 Apr 2026A Sporting CP2-1
    12 Apr 2026H Nacional2-0
    06 Apr 2026A Casa Pia1-1

    SC Braga

    DLWDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    03 May 2026H Estoril1-1
    26 Apr 2026A Santa Clara1-2
    23 Apr 2026A Casa Pia1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Famalicao2-2
    12 Apr 2026H Arouca1-0
    Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Benfica wins
    2Draws
    2SC Braga wins
    07 Jan 2026Benfica v SC Braga1-3
    28 Dec 2025SC Braga v Benfica2-2
    17 May 2025SC Braga v Benfica1-1
    26 Feb 2025Benfica v SC Braga1-0
    08 Jan 2025Benfica v SC Braga3-0
    04 Jan 2025Benfica v SC Braga1-2
    Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Benfica to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Benfica34
    Played
    SC Braga34
    Benfica2.2
    Avg goals for
    SC Braga1.9
    Benfica0.7
    Avg goals against
    SC Braga1.1
    Benfica14
    Clean sheets
    SC Braga12
    Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 70% · edge -7.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Season data supports Benfica to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Benfica80342311049
    4SC Braga59341611728
    Benfica sit in position 3, while SC Braga sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Benfica Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Benfica Over 2.5
    40%SC Braga Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Benfica sit at 60% and SC Braga sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Benfica v SC Braga prediction

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    Betting context

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