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Benfica crestBenfica
v
Aarhus crestAarhus

UEFA Europa League | Thu 20 Aug, 20:00

Benfica v Aarhus Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 00:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica face Aarhus in UEFA Europa League on Thu 20 Aug, 20:00. AGF have scored in eight of their nine games and in every home fixture this season, so Benfica's task is less about finding a goal than controlling a tie in which their opponents have repeatedly found ways onto.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica to win and both teams to score

  • At 9/5, Benfica to win and both teams to score implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.
  • Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Benfica to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0. The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Positive
Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because the timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Benfica to win and both teams to score evidence

The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a.

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-1
06 Aug 2026H Heart Of Midlothian6-1
30 Jul 2026H FC ST. Gallen5-0
23 Jul 2026A FC ST. Gallen1-2

Aarhus

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Aarhus yet.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 86% · edge -7.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica3.25
Avg goals scored
Aarhus-
Benfica1
Avg goals conceded
Aarhus-
Benfica75%
BTTS rate
Aarhus-
Benfica75%
Over 2.5 goals
Aarhus-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 86% · edge -7.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Benfica to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Benfica Over 2.5
-Aarhus Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.

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