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Benfica crestBenfica
v
Aarhus crestAarhus

UEFA Europa League | Thu 20 Aug, 20:00

Benfica v Aarhus Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 20:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica face Aarhus in UEFA Europa League on Thu 20 Aug, 20:00. AGF have scored in eight of their nine games and in every home fixture this season, so Benfica's task is less about finding a goal than controlling a tie in which their opponents have repeatedly found ways onto.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica to win and both teams to score

  • At 9/5, Benfica to win and both teams to score implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.
  • Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Benfica to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0. The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Positive
Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because the timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Benfica to win and both teams to score evidence

The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a.

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Benfica on 7 and Aarhus on 0.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-1
06 Aug 2026H Heart Of Midlothian6-1
30 Jul 2026H FC ST. Gallen5-0
23 Jul 2026A FC ST. Gallen1-2

Aarhus

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Aarhus yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 99% · edge -13 pts
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
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Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Benfica000000
UEFA Europa League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica3.25
Avg goals scored
Aarhus-
Benfica1
Avg goals conceded
Aarhus-
Benfica75%
BTTS rate
Aarhus-
Benfica75%
Over 2.5 goals
Aarhus-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 89% · edge -11.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Benfica Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Benfica wins
0Draws
0Aarhus wins
Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 86% · edge -11.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Benfica to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Benfica2
Avg corners for
Aarhus-
Benfica2.67
Avg total corners
Aarhus-
Benfica1
Avg yellow cards
Aarhus-
Benfica0
Avg shots
Aarhus-
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Benfica6
Played
Aarhus2
Benfica3.2
Avg goals for
Aarhus1
Benfica1
Avg goals against
Aarhus3
Benfica1
Clean sheets
Aarhus0
Market aligned with main pickBenfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 89% · edge -11.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Load more odds for this section
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Season data supports Benfica Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Benfica Over 2.5
-Aarhus Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The timing of goals supports this plausible repeat of the first-leg result, though minor score changes pose a risk.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Benfica v Aarhus prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre