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Benevento crestBenevento
v
Avellino crestAvellino

Serie B | Sat 07 Nov, 18:30

Benevento v Avellino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benevento and Avellino meet in a tightly contested Serie B clash with both teams sitting level on 15 points and closely ranked in the table. Recent form shows cautious attacking output, with Benevento averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, while Avellino concedes less than one goal on average. Both sides have shown defensive discipline, reflected in low over 2.5 goals rates, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The match is poised for a measured tempo, where defensive organization and midfield control will be key factors in limiting scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Benevento concedes just 1 goal per game on average, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Avellino has a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, showing a tendency for low-scoring matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.33 over six meetings, supporting a modest scoring outlook.
  • Both teams have similar recent points (8 each) and goal averages (1.6 scored), suggesting balanced play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 64.1% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and cautious attacking patterns. Benevento and Avellino have low over 2.5 goals rates (40% and 20% respectively), and their recent matches show limited goal-scoring bursts. The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals further supports a restrained scoring environment. This pick is priced attractively at 1.85, offering positive value given the model's higher implied chance. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats, reinforcing in this defensive outlook.

Model Chance64.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+10 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance64.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+10 pts)
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Benevento)40%
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Avellino)20%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.33
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible choice given the defensive discipline both Benevento and Avellino have shown this season. Their similar recent form and low goal concession rates point to a tactical match where scoring chances may be limited. The head-to-head history also supports a modest scoring outcome, making this bet a logical reflection of the expected match dynamics.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive balance

“This fixture is likely to be a tight, tactical affair with both sides prioritizing defensive organization over expansive attacking play, which aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Benevento concedes just 1 goal per game on average, indicating defensive solidity.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.33 over six meetings, supporting a modest scoring outlook.

Both teams have similar recent points (8 each) and goal averages (1.6 scored), suggesting balanced play.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating matches tend to be moderately low scoring.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with Under 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benevento1.6
Avg goals scored
Avellino1.6
Benevento1
Avg goals conceded
Avellino0.8
Benevento40%
BTTS rate
Avellino60%
Benevento40%
Over 2.5 goals
Avellino20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +10 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring records but strong defensive profiles, with Benevento conceding 1 goal per game and Avellino only 0.8. Avellino's higher BTTS rate (60%) contrasts with Benevento's lower rate (40%), indicating some risk of both teams scoring but overall supporting a low total goals outcome.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benevento

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026A Cremonese0-2
27 Oct 2026H Catanzaro1-1
24 Oct 2026A Arezzo3-0
17 Oct 2026H Vicenza Virtus2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cesena2-0

Avellino

WDLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
01 Nov 2026H Pisa2-0
27 Oct 2026A Virtus Entella1-1
24 Oct 2026H Padova0-1
18 Oct 2026A Cesena1-1
09 Oct 2026H Sampdoria4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Benevento Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Benevento to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form data shows both teams scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceding fewer than 1. Benevento's over 2.5 goals rate is 40%, while Avellino's is only 20%, reinforcing a trend towards lower scoring matches in their latest fixtures.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Benevento Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 64.1% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+10 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Benevento and 20% for Avellino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Benevento Over 2.5
20%Avellino Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating matches tend to be moderately low scoring. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with Under 2.5 Goals.

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