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Belgium crestBelgium
v
Senegal crestSenegal

World Cup | Wed 01 Jul, 21:00

Belgium v Senegal Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 11:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belgium face Senegal in World Cup on Wed 01 Jul, 21:00. Five of their goals arrived in a single fixture against a heavily depleted Iraq setup. The most impressive thing about Belgium’s recent run is not only the number of goals.

BT4Y best bet

Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo

  • At 6/5, Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 53%.
  • Belgium arrive with superior defensive stability, conceding only twice in their last five competitive matches.
  • Belgium have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Senegal.
  • Belgium have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 53% for Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Belgium have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Senegal. Belgium arrive with superior defensive stability, conceding only twice in their last five competitive matches.

Model chance vs price53% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Positive
Belgium have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Belgium have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Belgium arrive with superior defensive stability, conceding only twice.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Belgium Win is the preferred angle because belgium arrive with superior defensive stability, conceding only twice in their last five competitive matches. Belgium have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Senegal. That result was emphatic on the scoreboard, but the performance carried a few complications.

Main risk

That result was emphatic on the scoreboard, but the performance carried a few complications.

Key Data Signals

Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo evidence

Belgium arrive with superior defensive stability, conceding only twice in their last five competitive matches.

Belgium have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Senegal.

Belgium have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Belgium Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Ly and Belgium can dictate tempo notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Belgium2
    Avg goals scored
    Senegal2.67
    Belgium0.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Senegal2
    Belgium67%
    BTTS rate
    Senegal67%
    Belgium33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Senegal100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 85% vs implied 75% · edge +9.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 47% · edge +6.5 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Belgium to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Belgium4.67
    Avg corners for
    Senegal6.67
    Belgium9.33
    Avg total corners
    Senegal11.33
    Belgium1
    Avg yellow cards
    Senegal0.67
    Belgium24.33
    Avg shots
    Senegal16.67
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Belgium

    WDD
    Last 51W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 0L
    27 Jun 2026A New Zealand5-1
    21 Jun 2026H Iran0-0
    15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1

    Senegal

    WLL
    Last 51W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 2L
    26 Jun 2026H Iraq5-0
    23 Jun 2026A Norway2-3
    16 Jun 2026A France1-3
    Market aligned with main pickBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 47% · edge +6.5 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Belgium wins
    0Draws
    0Senegal wins
    Market aligned with main pickBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 47% · edge +6.5 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Belgium to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Belgium6
    Played
    Senegal4
    Belgium2.3
    Avg goals for
    Senegal2.5
    Belgium1.2
    Avg goals against
    Senegal2.3
    Belgium1
    Clean sheets
    Senegal1
    Market aligned with main pickBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 47% · edge +6.5 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Season data supports Belgium to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Belgium531204
    3Senegal331022
    8Senegal331022
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Belgium Over 2.5
    100%Senegal Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Belgium sit at 33% and Senegal sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Belgium v Senegal prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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