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World Cup | Wed 01 Jul, 21:00

Belgium v Senegal Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 03:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belgium and Senegal face off in a high-stakes World Cup Round of 32 tie in Seattle. Belgium arrive unbeaten in five competitive matches, showcasing a blend of attacking depth and defensive solidity, conceding only twice recently. Senegal, meanwhile, progressed with a volatile defensive record, conceding multiple goals in three of their last five games but carrying genuine offensive threat through players like Ismaila Sarr. The tactical battle will hinge on Belgium's wide play and midfield creativity against Senegal's pace and transitional speed, setting up a tense, dynamic knockout encounter with significant tactical nuance and emotional intensity.

BT4Y best bet

Match

  • Belgium unbeaten in last 5 competitive matches with 13 goals scored and only 2 conceded
  • Senegal conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerability
  • Belgium’s wide attackers Doku and Trossard create overloads that can disrupt Senegal’s reshuffled back line
  • Ismaila Sarr’s recent form (3 goals in last 2 games) poses a key counter-attacking threat for Senegal

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Belgium’s combination of attacking variety and defensive resilience underpins a 53% to win, supported by their unbeaten run and low goals conceded. Senegal’s defensive inconsistencies and recent concessions increase the likelihood of Belgium breaking through. The price at 2.20 offers positive value with a 7.5% edge, reflecting Belgium’s structural balance and tactical superiority. The model notes no data limitations, reinforcing in this selection.

Belgium recent formUnbeaten, 13 goals scored, 2 conceded in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Senegal defensive recordConceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 matches
Negative
Tactical width advantageBelgium’s wide players create overloads against Senegal’s back line
Strong positive
Price vs model chance2.20 odds imply 45.5%, model chance 53%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belgium’s tactical balance and recent form position them as favorites to control this knockout match. Their attacking depth and defensive discipline contrast with Senegal’s defensive fragility, making Belgium the more likely winner in regular time. The match promises tactical battles on the flanks and midfield, where Belgium’s creativity should prevail.

Main risk

The main risk lies in Senegal’s ability to exploit transitional counter-attacks through Ismaila Sarr, which could disrupt Belgium’s defensive control and reduce the margin of victory.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Belgium’s blend of attacking width and midfield creativity, combined with Senegal’s defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for a controlled Belgian victory. The key will be how well Belgium manage Senegal’s pace on the break.”

Key Data Signals

Match evidence

Belgium unbeaten in last 5 competitive matches with 13 goals scored and only 2 conceded

Senegal conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerability

Belgium’s wide attackers Doku and Trossard create overloads that can disrupt Senegal’s reshuffled back line

Ismaila Sarr’s recent form (3 goals in last 2 games) poses a key counter-attacking threat for Senegal

What To Watch In The Data

Match notes

  • Over the last five matches, Belgium’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is 33%, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring games.
  • Senegal’s 100% Over 2.5 rate suggests openness and attacking volatility.
  • This contrast points to a match where Belgium’s defensive discipline may limit Senegal’s scoring bursts, resulting in a moderate goal total consistent with knockout football tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Belgium2
Avg goals scored
Senegal2.67
Belgium0.67
Avg goals conceded
Senegal2
Belgium67%
BTTS rate
Senegal67%
Belgium33%
Over 2.5 goals
Senegal100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 52% · edge +20.1 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 85%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown contrasting defensive profiles: Belgium conceding only twice recently, Senegal leaking multiple goals in several matches. This suggests a controlled game with limited scoring chances, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context. Senegal’s offensive bursts may yield a goal, but Belgium’s structure should limit overall scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 53% · edge +22.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Senegal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Senegal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 2.20 price for Belgium to win reflects a positive value opportunity given the model’s 53% win probability. This pricing acknowledges Belgium’s unbeaten form and defensive solidity, while factoring in Senegal’s counter-attacking threat. The are attractive without being overly short, suggesting a balanced market assessment.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Belgium4.67
Avg corners for
Senegal6.67
Belgium9.33
Avg total corners
Senegal11.33
Belgium1
Avg yellow cards
Senegal0.67
Belgium24.33
Avg shots
Senegal16.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 53% · edge +22.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Belgium averages 4.67 corners and 24.33 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Senegal’s higher corner average (6.67) reflects their willingness to attack, but their defensive lapses increase foul risk. Both teams maintain moderate card rates, suggesting a competitive but disciplined encounter.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Belgium

WDD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
27 Jun 2026A New Zealand5-1
21 Jun 2026H Iran0-0
15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1

Senegal

WLL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
26 Jun 2026H Iraq5-0
23 Jun 2026A Norway2-3
16 Jun 2026A France1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 78% · edge +1.8 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Senegal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Senegal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Belgium’s recent form shows strong defensive control with only 0.67 goals conceded per match and a solid attacking output of 2 goals per game. Senegal’s form is more erratic, scoring 2.67 goals but conceding 2 per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Belgium’s 5-point haul versus Senegal’s 3 points in recent matches underscores Belgium’s momentum advantage.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Belgium wins
0Draws
0Senegal wins
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 52% · edge +20.1 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Senegal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
There is no recent head-to-head competitive history between Belgium and Senegal, adding tactical unpredictability. This lack of direct meetings means preparation and adaptability will be crucial, with both teams needing to rely on current form and structural strengths rather than past encounters.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

Belgium3
Played
Senegal3
Belgium2
Avg goals for
Senegal2.7
Belgium0.7
Avg goals against
Senegal2
Belgium1
Clean sheets
Senegal1
Best odds for this sectionBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 46% · edge +7.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Senegal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Senegal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Belgium’s season stats reveal a well-balanced team with 13 goals scored and only 2 conceded in five competitive matches, indicating strong offensive efficiency and defensive resilience. Senegal’s nine goals scored contrast with six conceded, reflecting an aggressive but porous defensive setup, which Belgium can exploit through tactical width and midfield control.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Belgium531204
3Senegal331022
8Senegal331022
Belgium topped Group G with five points and a +4 goal difference, demonstrating consistent performance and tactical maturity. Senegal finished third in Group I with three points, advancing after a decisive win but showing defensive instability. The standings highlight Belgium’s superior form and structural balance entering this knockout tie.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Belgium Over 2.5
100%Senegal Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Belgium’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is 33%, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring games. Senegal’s 100% Over 2.5 rate suggests openness and attacking volatility. This contrast points to a match where Belgium’s defensive discipline may limit Senegal’s scoring bursts, resulting in a moderate goal total consistent with knockout football tempo.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Belgium v Senegal prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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