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Bayern München crestBayern München
v
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 14:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The German Supercup pits Bundesliga champions Bayern München against runners-up Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park. Bayern arrive off a record-breaking season with 122 league goals, showcasing a potent attack despite missing Jamal Musiala and limited minutes for Harry Kane. Dortmund's impressive home form last season, winning 13 of 17 matches, faces a stern test amid defensive absences including Nico Schlotterbeck and Emre Can. Pre-season defensive struggles for Dortmund and Bayern's consistent scoring in friendlies set the stage for a high-tempo clash where both sides are expected to find the net, but Bayern's attacking depth and recent control in this fixture suggest they will claim victory.

BT4Y best bet

Bayern München to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Bayern scored a Bundesliga record 122 goals last season, highlighting their attacking strength.
  • Dortmund won 13 of 17 home league matches but face defensive absences impacting solidity.
  • Bayern are unbeaten in their last eight visits to Dortmund, winning seven of those games.
  • Pre-season form shows Bayern with five straight wins, Dortmund conceding multiple goals in friendlies.
  • Both teams scored in both league meetings last season, supporting a BTTS outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Bayern München to Win & Both Teams to Score at 40.9% chance, closely matching the 40% implied , indicating a balanced value bet. Bayern's record-breaking attack and recent friendly form underpin in their ability to score and win away. Dortmund's strong home record is tempered by key defensive injuries and recent goals conceded, making them vulnerable at the back but still capable of scoring. The model acknowledges the risk of Bayern's attacking lineup changes but sees sufficient depth to maintain goal threat, supporting the combined outcome.

Bayern attacking output122 Bundesliga goals last season, 4 goals in recent friendly
Strong positive
Dortmund defensive absencesMissing Schlotterbeck and Can, conceded 7 goals in recent friendlies
Negative
Dortmund home form13 wins in 17 home league matches last season
Positive
Bayern recent away controlUnbeaten last 8 visits to Dortmund, 7 wins
Strong positive
Price sensitivity44.8% model chance vs 40% implied (+4.8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bayern München's record-breaking scoring prowess and unbeaten recent visits to Dortmund make them strong favorites to win this Supercup clash. Despite Dortmund's solid home form, their defensive injuries and pre-season goals conceded suggest Bayern can break through while Dortmund will likely score at least once. This combination of Bayern's attacking depth and Dortmund's offensive capability supports a Bayern win with both teams scoring.

Main risk

Niko Kovac’s side made considerable progress last season, but Bayern operated at another attacking level.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring potential

“Bayern's historic goal-scoring record combined with Dortmund's defensive vulnerabilities creates a compelling case for a high-scoring Bayern victory. The absence of key Bayern attackers adds intrigue but their squad depth should maintain offensive pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Bayern München to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Bayern scored a Bundesliga record 122 goals last season, highlighting their attacking strength.

Dortmund won 13 of 17 home league matches but face defensive absences impacting solidity.

Bayern are unbeaten in their last eight visits to Dortmund, winning seven of those games.

Pre-season form shows Bayern with five straight wins, Dortmund conceding multiple goals in friendlies.

What To Watch In The Data

Bayern München to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.7, indicating a high-scoring trend between these sides.
  • Bayern's attacking tempo and Dortmund's defensive gaps suggest this trend will continue, with both teams likely to contribute goals.
  • The trend supports an Over 2.5 goals scenario, consistent with Bayern's record-breaking scoring and Dortmund's home scoring form, making a lively, goal-rich match probable.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bayern München4
Avg goals scored
Borussia Dortmund1.4
Bayern München1
Avg goals conceded
Borussia Dortmund0.4
Bayern München80%
BTTS rate
Borussia Dortmund20%
Bayern München100%
Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 88% vs implied 94% · edge -5.5 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have shown scoring ability in recent meetings and last season's Bundesliga encounters, with both sides netting in each fixture. Bayern's record 122 goals and Dortmund's 70 goals last season, combined with Dortmund's home scoring form, support a match featuring goals at both ends. Defensive absences for Dortmund increase the likelihood of Bayern scoring, while Dortmund's attacking options suggest they will breach Bayern's defense at least once.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBayern München Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 81% · edge -5.5 pts
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Bayern München to WinBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The 44.8% for Bayern München to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+4.8 pts). Bayern München need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Bayern München on 13 and Borussia Dortmund on 11. Dortmund’s solid home record is weakened by key defensive injuries and recent goals conceded in friendlies.

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Useful next reads

Bundesliga hubfull betting preview for Bayern München v Borussia Dortmundcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bayern München

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 0L
25 Oct 2026A SC Freiburg3-1
17 Oct 2026H RB Leipzig6-1
10 Oct 2026A FC Augsburg2-2
18 Sep 2026H Union Berlin7-0
13 Sep 2026A SV Elversberg2-1

Borussia Dortmund

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 0L
24 Oct 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-0
17 Oct 2026A Union Berlin0-0
09 Oct 2026H Werder Bremen2-2
19 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-0
12 Sep 2026H SC Paderborn 073-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 91% · edge -4.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Load more odds for this section
Bayern München Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Bayern München to WinBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Bayern have accumulated 13 points recently, scoring 4 goals per game and conceding just 1, with a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS rate, demonstrating strong form and offensive consistency. Dortmund have 11 points, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.4 per game, with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate and 20% BTTS rate, reflecting a more cautious approach but less attacking output. This contrast in recent form underlines Bayern's offensive edge and Dortmund's defensive vulnerabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bayern München Over 2.5
40%Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.7, indicating a high-scoring trend between these sides. Bayern's attacking tempo and Dortmund's defensive gaps suggest this trend will continue, with both teams likely to contribute goals. The trend supports an Over 2.5 goals scenario, consistent with Bayern's record-breaking scoring and Dortmund's home scoring form, making a lively, goal-rich match probable.

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