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Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen
v
SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg

Bundesliga | Sun 18 Oct, 14:30

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 22:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg meet in a Bundesliga clash featuring two of the league's most potent offenses. Freiburg currently leads the table, while Leverkusen sits fourth, both boasting strong attacking records with an average of 2.8 goals scored per game. Their recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, reflecting open tactical approaches and aggressive forward play. This fixture promises an intense battle with attacking intent from both sides, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter at a crucial point in the season.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 2.8 goals scored per game this season, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Leverkusen and Freiburg each have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Their last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced an average of 3.9 goals per game.
  • Leverkusen averages 21.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, showing sustained offensive pressure.
  • Freiburg concedes only 0.8 goals per game, but their matches still trend high scoring due to their attacking style.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance against an implied market chance of 47.6%, reflecting a 10.4% . Both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg display prolific attacking stats, averaging 2.8 goals scored per game and high shot volumes, supporting the likelihood of a goal-heavy match. Their recent head-to-head average of 3.9 goals further reinforces this expectation. The model at 69% underlines a strong statistical basis for anticipating a lively, high-scoring game.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Team Scoring2.8 goals per game each
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals3.9 average goals in last 10 matches
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking contest between two Bundesliga teams with strong offensive records. Bayer Leverkusen's high shot volume and Freiburg's top-table status suggest both sides will push forward, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. The combination of recent form and historical meetings supports the Over 3.5 Goals selection as a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

The risk lies in Leverkusen’s recent clean sheets potentially limiting the total goals if Freiburg fail to score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match tempo

“This matchup features two sides with aggressive attacking styles and a history of high-scoring games, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical and statistically supported pick for bettors seeking excitement and value.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 2.8 goals scored per game this season, indicating strong attacking form.

Leverkusen and Freiburg each have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season.

Their last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced an average of 3.9 goals per game.

Leverkusen averages 21.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, showing sustained offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.9 per game, indicating a historical trend toward high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and the viability of the Over 2.5 Goals trend continuing in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bayer Leverkusen2.8
Avg goals scored
SC Freiburg2.8
Bayer Leverkusen1.6
Avg goals conceded
SC Freiburg0.8
Bayer Leverkusen60%
BTTS rate
SC Freiburg60%
Bayer Leverkusen80%
Over 2.5 goals
SC Freiburg80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate and average 2.8 goals scored per game, indicating matches often feature goals at both ends. The high scoring average and attacking styles suggest multiple goal scenarios are likely, with BTTS contributing to the total goals tally. This supports the Over 3.5 Goals route through combined offensive output rather than one-sided control.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 67% · edge +11.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Bayer Leverkusen and 80% for SC Freiburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Freiburg’s tendency to concede twice in recent matches and the 3-3 draw in their last meeting support a high-scoring game with at least three.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bayer Leverkusen

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
10 Oct 2026A FSV Mainz 054-3
20 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig2-0
12 Sep 2026A FC Augsburg2-2
05 Sep 2026H Union Berlin4-0
29 Aug 2026A SV Elversberg2-3

SC Freiburg

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
11 Oct 2026H FC Schalke 042-1
19 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt2-2
12 Sep 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach5-0
05 Sep 2026A SC Paderborn 071-0
30 Aug 2026H Werder Bremen4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows both teams averaging 2.8 goals scored per game and an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals. This consistent high-scoring trend highlights their offensive capabilities and propensity for open games, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-laden encounter in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
80%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.9 per game, indicating a historical trend toward high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and the viability of the Over 2.5 Goals trend continuing in this fixture.

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