Bayer Leverkusen
SC FreiburgBundesliga | Sun 18 Oct, 14:30
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg Stats
Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 01:07 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Bayer Leverkusen face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga on Sun 18 Oct, 14:30. Leverkusen’s 2.3 goals per game and Freiburg’s 14 league goals in five matches support a 2-1 home win. Freiburg’s scoring consistency and Leverkusen’s unbeaten recent meetings suggest a narrow home victory, though the exact score is fragile due to potential extra goals.
Over 2
- At 1.62, Over 2 implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
- Defensive improvements have been particularly notable, with three clean sheets across their last four fixtures.
- SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Bayer Leverkusen.
- SC Freiburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Over 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.
- Bayer Leverkusen sit 6 in the table, while SC Freiburg sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 27% (-34.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: SC Freiburg Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.85.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 27% for Over 2 sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Bayer Leverkusen. Defensive improvements have been particularly notable, with three clean sheets across their last four fixtures.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Bayer Leverkusen Win is the preferred angle because defensive improvements have been particularly notable, with three clean sheets across their last four fixtures. SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Bayer Leverkusen. The risk lies in Leverkusen’s recent clean sheets potentially limiting the total goals if Freiburg fail to score.
The risk lies in Leverkusen’s recent clean sheets potentially limiting the total goals if Freiburg fail to score.
Key Data Signals
Over 2 evidence
Defensive improvements have been particularly notable, with three clean sheets across their last four fixtures.
SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Bayer Leverkusen.
SC Freiburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Bayer Leverkusen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Bayer Leverkusen sit 6 in the table, while SC Freiburg sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
What To Watch In The Data
Over 2 notes
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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