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Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen
v
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 10:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bayer Leverkusen face Hamburger SV in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. Sharp combinations, quick transitions and relentless pressure completely tore through one of the league’s stronger sides.

BT4Y best bet

Bayer Leverkusen Win

  • At 15/2, Bayer Leverkusen Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • The 3-1 defeat away to Stuttgart last weekend exposed the recurring issue that has followed Leverkusen throughout the season: defensive instability once matches become.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hamburger SV.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bayer Leverkusen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Bayer Leverkusen sit 6 in the table, while Hamburger SV sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Bayer Leverkusen Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hamburger SV. The 3-1 defeat away to Stuttgart last weekend exposed the recurring issue that has followed Leverkusen throughout the season: defensive instability once matches become.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
The 3-1 defeat away to Stuttgart last weekend exposed.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bayer Leverkusen Win is the preferred angle because the 3-1 defeat away to Stuttgart last weekend exposed the recurring issue that has followed Leverkusen throughout the season: defensive instability once matches become stretched. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hamburger SV. However, recent performances suggest a team playing with renewed energy rather than resignation.

Main risk

However, recent performances suggest a team playing with renewed energy rather than resignation.

Key Data Signals

Bayer Leverkusen Win evidence

The 3-1 defeat away to Stuttgart last weekend exposed the recurring issue that has followed Leverkusen throughout the.

Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hamburger SV.

Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bayer Leverkusen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6 in the table, while Hamburger SV sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Bayer Leverkusen Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Bayer Leverkusen6.8
    Avg corners for
    Hamburger SV3
    Bayer Leverkusen11
    Avg total corners
    Hamburger SV10.4
    Bayer Leverkusen1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Hamburger SV1.8
    Bayer Leverkusen16.8
    Avg shots
    Hamburger SV11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Bayer Leverkusen1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Hamburger SV1.4
    Bayer Leverkusen1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Hamburger SV2.4
    Bayer Leverkusen80%
    BTTS rate
    Hamburger SV80%
    Bayer Leverkusen80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Hamburger SV100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 80% · edge -16.3 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Bayer Leverkusen to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Bayer Leverkusen

    LWWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    09 May 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-3
    02 May 2026H RB Leipzig4-1
    25 Apr 2026A 1. FC Köln2-1
    18 Apr 2026H FC Augsburg1-2
    11 Apr 2026A Borussia Dortmund1-0

    Hamburger SV

    WWLLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    10 May 2026H SC Freiburg3-2
    02 May 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt2-1
    25 Apr 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim1-2
    18 Apr 2026A Werder Bremen1-3
    12 Apr 2026A VfB Stuttgart0-4
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 80% · edge -16.3 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Bayer Leverkusen wins
    1Draws
    3Hamburger SV wins
    04 Mar 2026Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen0-1
    17 Feb 2018Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen1-2
    24 Sep 2017Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV3-0
    03 Feb 2017Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen1-0
    10 Sep 2016Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV3-1
    13 Mar 2016Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV1-0
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 80% · edge -16.3 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Bayer Leverkusen to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    Bayer Leverkusen34
    Played
    Hamburger SV34
    Bayer Leverkusen2
    Avg goals for
    Hamburger SV1.2
    Bayer Leverkusen1.4
    Avg goals against
    Hamburger SV1.6
    Bayer Leverkusen8
    Clean sheets
    Hamburger SV6
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 80% · edge -16.3 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Season data supports Bayer Leverkusen to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Bayer Leverkusen5934178921
    13Hamburger SV383491114-14
    Bayer Leverkusen sit in position 6, while Hamburger SV sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Bayer Leverkusen Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
    100%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bayer Leverkusen sit at 80% and Hamburger SV sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV prediction

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