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Bari crestBari
v
Crotone crestCrotone

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00

Bari v Crotone Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bari enters this Serie C - Girone C clash in strong form, sitting second in the standings with 19 points, showcasing a solid defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. In contrast, Crotone struggles at the bottom with no points and a leaky defense allowing 2 goals per match. Bari's tactical discipline and home advantage set the stage for a confident performance against a Crotone side that has yet to find rhythm or stability this season.

BT4Y best bet

Bari to Win

  • Bari ranks 2nd with 19 points, showing strong league form.
  • Crotone is bottom with 0 points, struggling defensively.
  • Bari concedes only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Crotone concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Bari's to win is 73.7%, with positive value at 1.67 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Bari to win with a 73.7% chance, reflecting their superior form and defensive strength compared to Crotone's struggles. Bari's consistent point accumulation and low goals conceded underpin this . The of 1.67 offer positive value given Crotone's winless start and defensive vulnerabilities. No price warnings apply, making Bari to win a solid selection based on current data and tactical context.

Bari recent formStrong, 19 points and 0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Crotone recent formPoor, 0 points and 2 goals conceded per game
Negative
Model chance vs odds73.7% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive recordsBari's defense much tighter than Crotone's
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bari's tactical discipline and strong defensive record make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their consistent form contrasts sharply with Crotone's struggles, making Bari's win the most logical outcome based on both tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based confidence in Bari's win

“Bari's solid defensive shape and consistent point haul create a strong foundation for a home win, especially against a Crotone side that has yet to find form or defensive stability this season.”

Key Data Signals

Bari to Win evidence

Bari ranks 2nd with 19 points, showing strong league form.

Crotone is bottom with 0 points, struggling defensively.

Bari concedes only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.

Crotone concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

What To Watch In The Data

Bari to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, Bari's 40% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Crotone's 80%, indicating Crotone games tend to be higher scoring.
  • However, Bari's defensive strength may suppress the overall goal count, suggesting a controlled tempo with fewer goals than Crotone's typical matches.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bari1.2
Avg goals scored
Crotone1.4
Bari0.6
Avg goals conceded
Crotone2
Bari40%
BTTS rate
Crotone80%
Bari40%
Over 2.5 goals
Crotone80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Bari averages 1.2 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, while Crotone scores 1.4 but concedes heavily, leading to an 80% BTTS rate. This suggests a match where Bari's defense could limit Crotone's scoring chances, potentially resulting in a lower-scoring game favoring Bari's win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBari to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +13.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Bari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 73.7% for Bari to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+13.8 pts). Bari have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Crotone.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bari

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Giugliano2-0
04 Oct 2026A Salernitana1-2
26 Sep 2026H Cosenza1-0
19 Sep 2026A Sorrento2-1
15 Sep 2026H Potenza0-0

Crotone

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-3
03 Oct 2026A Catania1-2
26 Sep 2026H Salernitana2-1
20 Sep 2026A SS Monopoli2-2
15 Sep 2026H Inter U230-2
Market aligned with main pickBari to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +13.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Bari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Bari's recent form is impressive with 19 points and a strong defensive record, contrasting sharply with Crotone's zero points and defensive frailty. This form disparity underpins Bari's strong likelihood of securing victory in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Bari Over 2.5
80%Crotone Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, Bari's 40% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Crotone's 80%, indicating Crotone games tend to be higher scoring. However, Bari's defensive strength may suppress the overall goal count, suggesting a controlled tempo with fewer goals than Crotone's typical matches.

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