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Banfield crestBanfield
v
Sarmiento Junin crestSarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina | Tue 28 Jul, 23:00

Banfield v Sarmiento Junin Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 05:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Banfield hosts Sarmiento Junin in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where home advantage and recent form shape expectations. Banfield have shown solid home performances with three wins and three clean sheets in six matches, while Sarmiento struggle away, losing five of six games and scoring just 0.5 goals per away match. Both teams enter after opening losses, increasing pressure to secure points early. Banfield's territorial control and aggressive midfield tackling contrast with Sarmiento's possession style but limited attacking threat, setting a tactical battle where Banfield's home stability and sharper attack could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Banfield to Win

  • Banfield have won three and kept three clean sheets in last six home matches.
  • Sarmiento lost five of six away games, averaging 0.50 goals per away match.
  • Banfield average 49.95 dangerous attacks and 18.95 tackles per game, showing territorial and defensive edge.
  • Recent head-to-heads are low scoring with under 2.5 goals in last eight meetings.
  • Sarmiento's away defensive fragility and scoring drought increase Banfield's winning chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Banfield to Win with a 55.4% chance, reflecting their strong home form, defensive solidity, and superior attacking metrics compared to Sarmiento's poor away record and low scoring. Banfield's higher tackle rate and dangerous attacks per match indicate control and pressure likely to disrupt Sarmiento's rhythm. The 2.0 decimal offer a slight over the 50% implied chance. No data limitations or price warnings apply, supporting in this selection.

Home form3 wins, 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches
Strong positive
Away form5 losses in 6 away matches, 0.50 goals per away game
Strong positive
Attacking pressureBanfield averages 49.95 dangerous attacks vs Sarmiento's 47.37
Positive
Midfield aggressionBanfield averages 18.95 tackles per game vs 14.37 for Sarmiento
Positive
Odds value2.0 decimal odds vs 55.4% model chance
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Banfield's home defensive strength and midfield aggression provide a solid foundation to control the match against a Sarmiento side struggling away. Their superior territorial play and recent home results suggest they are well placed to secure victory in a tightly contested fixture.

Main risk

It looks respectable, but eventually somebody asks what the point is.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Banfield

“Banfield's combination of home resilience and midfield intensity creates a tactical advantage that should enable them to capitalize on Sarmiento's away vulnerabilities and secure a crucial win.”

Key Data Signals

Banfield to Win evidence

Banfield have won three and kept three clean sheets in last six home matches.

Sarmiento lost five of six away games, averaging 0.50 goals per away match.

Banfield average 49.95 dangerous attacks and 18.95 tackles per game, showing territorial and defensive edge.

Recent head-to-heads are low scoring with under 2.5 goals in last eight meetings.

What To Watch In The Data

Banfield to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.2, with eight consecutive matches producing under 2.5 goals.
  • This trend suggests a cautious tempo and defensive discipline from both sides, making an over 2.5 goals outcome less likely despite some attacking talent on both teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Banfield0.6
Avg goals scored
Sarmiento Junin1
Banfield0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sarmiento Junin2.2
Banfield40%
BTTS rate
Sarmiento Junin60%
Banfield20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sarmiento Junin80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Historical meetings and recent form suggest a low-scoring match, with both teams showing defensive solidity and Sarmiento's away scoring drought. Under 3.5 goals and BTTS No are supported by eight consecutive low-scoring head-to-head games and Banfield's three clean sheets at home, indicating a controlled game with limited goal opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBanfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Banfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 2.0 decimal for Banfield to Win reflect a market aligned with the model's 55.4% probability, indicating a small positive . Banfield's strong home record and Sarmiento's poor away form justify this pricing, making the selection a sensible choice without major price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Banfield3.6
Avg corners for
Sarmiento Junin3.6
Banfield7
Avg total corners
Sarmiento Junin8
Banfield2.6
Avg yellow cards
Sarmiento Junin2
Banfield11.8
Avg shots
Sarmiento Junin8.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Banfield's higher average shots (11.8) and corners (3.6) compared to Sarmiento (5.5 shots, 2.5 corners) highlight their territorial control and attacking pressure. Sarmiento's lower fouling and card rates contrast with Banfield's more aggressive tackling, suggesting a physical midfield battle that could disrupt Sarmiento's rhythm and create set-piece chances for Banfield.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Banfield

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
25 Jul 2026A Huracan0-1
02 May 2026A Barracas Central2-1
27 Apr 2026A Atletico Tucuman1-1
20 Apr 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
13 Apr 2026A Lanus0-1

Sarmiento Junin

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
23 Jul 2026H Argentinos JRS2-3
03 May 2026A Belgrano Cordoba0-4
25 Apr 2026H Tigre1-0
20 Apr 2026A Rosario Central1-2
13 Apr 2026H Gimnasia L.P.1-2
Market aligned with main pickBanfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Banfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Banfield's recent form at home is solid with three wins and three clean sheets in six matches, contrasting with Sarmiento's poor away run of five losses in six games. Banfield's ability to maintain defensive stability while generating more shots and dangerous attacks underpins their favored status, while Sarmiento's struggles to score away reduce their chances of overturning the home advantage.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Banfield wins
7Draws
1Sarmiento Junin wins
30 Jan 2026Sarmiento Junin v Banfield1-0
14 Dec 2024Banfield v Sarmiento Junin1-1
29 Jul 2023Sarmiento Junin v Banfield0-0
23 Oct 2022Banfield v Sarmiento Junin0-0
17 Feb 2022Sarmiento Junin v Banfield2-2
24 Nov 2021Sarmiento Junin v Banfield0-0
Market aligned with main pickBanfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The last ten head-to-head matches between Banfield and Sarmiento have been tightly contested, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. Sarmiento remain unbeaten in recent meetings but Banfield have avoided defeat in seven of the last eight, indicating a balanced rivalry with low scoring and tactical caution dominating outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Banfield17
Played
Sarmiento Junin17
Banfield1
Avg goals for
Sarmiento Junin0.9
Banfield1.2
Avg goals against
Sarmiento Junin1.4
Banfield4
Clean sheets
Sarmiento Junin5
Market aligned with main pickBanfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Banfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Season-long data shows Banfield averaging 1.11 goals scored and conceded per match, reflecting balanced but controlled performances. Their higher average shots and dangerous attacks per game indicate consistent offensive pressure. Sarmiento's 0.50 away goals per game and higher goals conceded highlight their defensive vulnerabilities and scoring difficulties on the road, reinforcing Banfield's advantage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Sarmiento Junin1916619-7
12Banfield1816538-2
10Sarmiento Junin01001-1
14Banfield01001-1
Banfield sits 14th and Sarmiento 10th in the league, but early season standings offer limited insight. The key factor is Banfield's superior home form and Sarmiento's away struggles, which carry more weight than table position in this fixture's context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Banfield Over 2.5
80%Sarmiento Junin Over 2.5
1.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.2, with eight consecutive matches producing under 2.5 goals. This trend suggests a cautious tempo and defensive discipline from both sides, making an over 2.5 goals outcome less likely despite some attacking talent on both teams.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Banfield v Sarmiento Junin prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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