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Bahia crestBahia
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Thu 29 Oct, 00:30

Bahia v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Bahia hosting Sao Paulo in a contest where both teams have shown mixed recent form. Bahia has struggled to score consistently, averaging just 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches, while Sao Paulo has been more potent offensively, averaging 1 goal per game. Sao Paulo's ability to create more shots and shots on target, combined with their slightly better defensive record, suggests they have the tactical edge. Both teams have similar over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, but Sao Paulo's recent momentum and attacking depth make them the favorites in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Sao Paulo to Win

  • Sao Paulo holds a 57.6% to win, with strong value at 3.8 .
  • Sao Paulo averages 16.4 shots and 4.4 shots on target per game, outpacing Bahia's 12.2 and 2.2 respectively.
  • Bahia has scored only 0.6 goals per game recently, while Sao Paulo averages 1 goal per game.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals, but Sao Paulo's attacking players have higher goal threat indexes.
  • Sao Paulo ranks 9th with 43 points, slightly behind Bahia's 7th place and 50 points, indicating competitive stakes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sao Paulo to win with a 57.6% chance, supported by their superior shot volume and goal threat from key attackers like Luciano and J. Sao Paulo's offensive efficiency and recent form, including a higher points tally in the last five matches, underpin this . The at 3.8 offer significant value given the implied chance of 26.3%. Defensive solidity and midfield creativity further enhance Sao Paulo's prospects. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the pick a solid value bet with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance41.3% model chance vs 26.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model41.3% model chance vs 26.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsSao Paulo 7 vs Bahia 4
Positive
Shots and Shots on TargetSao Paulo 16.4/4.4 vs Bahia 12.2/2.2
Strong positive
Goal Threat PlayersLuciano (9 goals), J. Calleri (0.45 goals/90)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sao Paulo's recent form and attacking firepower, led by prolific forwards Luciano and J. Calleri, position them well to secure a win despite playing away. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline gives them a tactical and statistical edge over Bahia, who have struggled to convert chances consistently.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sao Paulo's balanced attack and solid midfield creativity, combined with Bahia's inconsistent scoring, make the visitors the logical choice to win this fixture. Their higher shot volume and key players' goal threat provide a clear advantage.”

Key Data Signals

Sao Paulo to Win evidence

Sao Paulo holds a 57.6% to win, with strong value at 3.8 .

Sao Paulo averages 16.4 shots and 4.4 shots on target per game, outpacing Bahia's 12.2 and 2.2 respectively.

Bahia has scored only 0.6 goals per game recently, while Sao Paulo averages 1 goal per game.

Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals, but Sao Paulo's attacking players have higher goal threat indexes.

What To Watch In The Data

Sao Paulo to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture with potential for multiple goals.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate at 40% suggests a balanced chance for goal-scoring opportunities, with Sao Paulo's offensive players likely to influence the tempo and goal count positively.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia0.6
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo1
Bahia1.4
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1.2
Bahia40%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo60%
Bahia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.3 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, with Sao Paulo showing a slightly higher BTTS rate at 60%. The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 2.3, indicating a moderately open game. Sao Paulo's attacking players contribute to a higher chance of goals, supporting potential scoring from both sides but with a slight lean towards Sao Paulo's offensive output.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 41.3% for Sao Paulo to Win sits against roughly 26.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sao Paulo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Bahia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Santos1-1
18 Oct 2026H Flamengo0-3
11 Oct 2026H Mirassol1-0
09 Oct 2026A Palmeiras0-1
20 Sep 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-2

Sao Paulo

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Mirassol1-1
18 Oct 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
11 Oct 2026H Vitoria2-1
08 Oct 2026A Cruzeiro0-2
03 Oct 2026H Santos1-2
Market aligned with main pickSao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sao Paulo has accumulated 7 points in their last five matches, outperforming Bahia's 4 points, reflecting better recent momentum. Sao Paulo's improved goal scoring and defensive stability contrast with Bahia's struggles to find the net consistently. This form advantage underpins in Sao Paulo's ability to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Bahia Over 2.5
40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture with potential for multiple goals. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate at 40% suggests a balanced chance for goal-scoring opportunities, with Sao Paulo's offensive players likely to influence the tempo and goal count positively.

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