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Auxerre crestAuxerre
v
Paris FC crestParis FC

Ligue 1 | Sat 07 Nov, 18:00

Auxerre v Paris FC Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Saturday's Ligue 1 clash at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps features Auxerre hosting Paris FC in a pivotal fixture for both sides. Auxerre, sitting 17th, rely heavily on home performances to escape relegation danger, having earned most of their points there despite defensive vulnerabilities and disciplinary issues. Paris FC, second in the table, bring a possession-dominant style with high shot volumes and technical quality, aiming to reclaim top spot. The tactical battle will see Auxerre's aggressive, direct approach tested against Paris FC's control and variety in attack, with discipline and finishing key to the outcome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 56%, above the 18% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Auxerre have scored 14 goals in 18 matches but concede frequently, creating chances for a high-scoring game.
  • Paris FC average 69.4% possession and 17.6 shots per game, pressuring Auxerre's defense.
  • Auxerre have received five home red cards this season, risking numerical disadvantage against Paris FC's ball retention.
  • The match features Auxerre's top scorer Lassine Sinayoko, who is crucial for converting limited chances.
Price warning

Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 18% (-37.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.67.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals as the primary pick despite a low 18.1% chance due to the tactical setup and recent form. Auxerre's aggressive home style combined with Paris FC's attacking control suggests a match with multiple goals. However, the current imply a 55.6% chance, indicating the price is short and caution is advised. Reduced staking or waiting for better is recommended, as improved line-ups or late data could enhance value. The model acknowledges the football read but flags the price sensitivity.

Model Chance18.1% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-37.5 pts)
Neutral
Market Implied Chance18.1% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-37.5 pts)
Negative
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate80% both teams
Positive
Auxerre Home Red Cards5 this season
Negative
Paris FC Possession and Shots69.4% possession, 17.6 shots/game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Auxerre's aggressive home approach combined with Paris FC's possession control sets up a high-tempo, open game likely to produce multiple goals. While Auxerre's defensive lapses and disciplinary record pose challenges, their home grit and key players like Sinayoko provide a realistic chance for a win with goals. The data supports a competitive match with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring dynamics

“Auxerre's home resilience and attacking intent against Paris FC's technical superiority create a fascinating clash where goals are expected, but discipline and finishing will ultimately decide the outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Auxerre have scored 14 goals in 18 matches but concede frequently, creating chances for a high-scoring game.

Paris FC average 69.4% possession and 17.6 shots per game, pressuring Auxerre's defense.

Auxerre have received five home red cards this season, risking numerical disadvantage against Paris FC's ball retention.

The match features Auxerre's top scorer Lassine Sinayoko, who is crucial for converting limited chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, slightly below the recent over 2.5 goals rate for both teams.
  • However, recent form and tactical setups suggest a faster tempo and more open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals.
  • The trend panel highlights a match environment conducive to scoring through transitions, set pieces, and sustained pressure from Paris FC.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Auxerre1.6
Avg goals scored
Paris FC2
Auxerre2.4
Avg goals conceded
Paris FC1.6
Auxerre100%
BTTS rate
Paris FC80%
Auxerre80%
Over 2.5 goals
Paris FC80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have been involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals at an 80% rate recently, with Auxerre conceding frequently and Paris FC generating high shot volumes. Auxerre's defensive vulnerabilities and Paris FC's attacking variety, including set-piece and long-shot threats, point to a game with multiple scoring opportunities and a high likelihood of both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 hubfull betting preview for Auxerre v Paris FCcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAuxerre to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 23% · edge +4.4 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 18.1% for Auxerre Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-37.5 pts). Can Auxerre’s home grit derail PSG’s title-chasing machine at the Abbé-Deschamps?
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Auxerre

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 5L
01 Nov 2026A Strasbourg1-5
25 Oct 2026H Le Mans1-1
18 Oct 2026A Le Havre3-1
11 Oct 2026A Rennes1-4
20 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 292-1

Paris FC

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 2L
01 Nov 2026H Monaco3-1
24 Oct 2026A Lens1-2
18 Oct 2026H Rennes4-3
10 Oct 2026A Lorient0-1
19 Sep 2026H Strasbourg2-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +2.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form shows Auxerre earning 7 points with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, indicating defensive struggles but offensive intent. Paris FC have 9 points with 2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, reflecting a stronger defense and efficient attack. Both teams' matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, supporting expectations of an open, high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Auxerre Over 2.5
80%Paris FC Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, slightly below the recent over 2.5 goals rate for both teams. However, recent form and tactical setups suggest a faster tempo and more open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. The trend panel highlights a match environment conducive to scoring through transitions, set pieces, and sustained pressure from Paris FC.

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