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Audace Cerignola crestAudace Cerignola
v
Savoia crestSavoia

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Audace Cerignola v Savoia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Audace Cerignola hosts Savoia in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams have shown cautious attacking output recently. Cerignola has scored less than a goal per game on average, while Savoia's slightly higher scoring rate is offset by a similarly modest defensive record. Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a tendency towards tighter games. The mid-table positioning and balanced recent form indicate a tactical approach focused on defensive solidity, making a low-scoring encounter likely in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Audace Cerignola averages 0.8 goals per game, indicating limited attacking firepower.
  • Savoia concedes 1.2 goals per game, reflecting moderate defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting a lower scoring expectation.
  • Recent form shows both sides earning similar points with tight scorelines.
  • No previous head-to-head data, increasing uncertainty but reinforcing cautious play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 59% probability, reflecting the teams' restrained scoring patterns and defensive approaches. Both sides have low goal averages and moderate over 2.5 goals rates, suggesting matches tend to be tight and controlled. The 10.2% positive at of 2.05 indicates a favorable price for this outcome. Limited data quality is not a concern here, and the tactical context supports a low-scoring game, making this a solid selection with standard stake .

Model Probability59% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge59% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Team Scoring RatesLow goals per game for both teams
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate40% for both teams, below league average
Positive
Data QualitySufficient data points for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given the cautious attacking records and balanced defensive profiles of both sides. Cerignola and Savoia have shown a tendency for tight matches with limited scoring, and their recent form supports a controlled tempo. This bet aligns well with the tactical and statistical context of the fixture, making it a prudent choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture's low scoring tendencies and balanced defenses make Under 2.5 Goals a compelling option, especially with both teams showing restraint in attack and a focus on maintaining structure.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Audace Cerignola averages 0.8 goals per game, indicating limited attacking firepower.

Savoia concedes 1.2 goals per game, reflecting moderate defensive vulnerability.

Recent form shows both sides earning similar points with tight scorelines.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower scoring affairs.
  • This trend suggests the fixture will likely feature a measured pace and limited goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Audace Cerignola0.8
Avg goals scored
Savoia1
Audace Cerignola1
Avg goals conceded
Savoia1.2
Audace Cerignola40%
BTTS rate
Savoia60%
Audace Cerignola40%
Over 2.5 goals
Savoia40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams average under one goal per game and have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a pattern of low-scoring encounters. The BTTS rates are moderate, with Savoia at 60% and Cerignola at 40%, suggesting some risk of both teams scoring but overall restrained offensive output.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Audace Cerignola

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Crotone3-2
04 Oct 2026H Team Altamura0-0
26 Sep 2026A AZ Picerno1-2
19 Sep 2026H Casertana0-0
15 Sep 2026A Casarano0-1

Savoia

WDLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Inter U232-1
03 Oct 2026A SS Monopoli0-0
26 Sep 2026A Cavese2-4
19 Sep 2026H Casarano1-1
15 Sep 2026A Foggia0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Savoia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Savoia to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows Cerignola and Savoia earning 5 and 6 points respectively in their last matches, with goals for and against close to one per game. This balance supports a trend of tight, low-scoring games, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as both teams appear to prioritize defensive stability.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSavoia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Savoia to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 59% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Audace Cerignola and 40% for Savoia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Audace Cerignola Over 2.5
40%Savoia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower scoring affairs. This trend suggests the fixture will likely feature a measured pace and limited goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.

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