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Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 23:30

Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 12:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Paranaense face Flamengo in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 23:30. Athletico Paranaense are exceptionally strong at home, remaining unbeaten in seven consecutive matches at the Arena da Baixada. Athletico Paranaense average an impressive scoring record at home with forward Kevin Viveros in excellent form.

BT4Y match pick

To late structural equalisers or unexpected red cards that disrupt the initial match environment

  • At 3.3, Atletico Paranaense Win implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Matching the absolute best home returns in the division alongside Palmeiras and Fluminense.
  • Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Paranaense.
  • Atletico Paranaense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Paranaense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Atletico Paranaense sit 4 in the table, while Flamengo sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Atletico Paranaense Win sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Paranaense. Matching the absolute best home returns in the division alongside Palmeiras and Fluminense.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Negative
Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Atletico Paranaense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Matching the absolute best home returns in the division.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Paranaense Win is the preferred angle because matching the absolute best home returns in the division alongside Palmeiras and Fluminense. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Paranaense. Flamengo, however, have been remarkably balanced all season.

Main risk

Flamengo, however, have been remarkably balanced all season.

Key Data Signals

Atletico Paranaense Win evidence

Matching the absolute best home returns in the division alongside Palmeiras and Fluminense.

Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Paranaense.

Atletico Paranaense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Paranaense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Atletico Paranaense sit 4 in the table, while Flamengo sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Paranaense Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Atletico Paranaense4.4
    Avg corners for
    Flamengo4
    Atletico Paranaense8.4
    Avg total corners
    Flamengo8.6
    Atletico Paranaense2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Flamengo2.6
    Atletico Paranaense13.2
    Avg shots
    Flamengo15.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 49%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionsAtletico Paranaense v Flamengo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Atletico Paranaense1
    Avg goals scored
    Flamengo2.2
    Atletico Paranaense0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Flamengo0.6
    Atletico Paranaense20%
    BTTS rate
    Flamengo40%
    Atletico Paranaense20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Flamengo60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.4 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for Atletico Paranaense and 60% for Flamengo, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.3 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Atletico Paranaense to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Atletico Paranaense

    LDWLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    11 May 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-1
    03 May 2026H Gremio0-0
    26 Apr 2026H Vitoria3-1
    19 Apr 2026A Palmeiras0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0

    Flamengo

    WDWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 2D 1L
    10 May 2026A Gremio1-0
    03 May 2026H Vasco DA Gama2-2
    27 Apr 2026A Atletico-MG4-0
    19 Apr 2026H Bahia2-0
    12 Apr 2026A Fluminense2-1
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.3 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
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    Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Atletico Paranaense wins
    2Draws
    6Flamengo wins
    30 Sep 2024Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense1-0
    16 Jun 2024Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo1-1
    14 Sep 2023Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense0-3
    13 Jul 2023Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo0-2
    06 Jul 2023Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense2-1
    07 May 2023Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo2-1
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.3 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Atletico Paranaense to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Atletico Paranaense18
    Played
    Flamengo17
    Atletico Paranaense1.3
    Avg goals for
    Flamengo1.8
    Atletico Paranaense1
    Avg goals against
    Flamengo0.9
    Atletico Paranaense5
    Clean sheets
    Flamengo7
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.3 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Season data supports Atletico Paranaense to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Flamengo3417104315
    4Atletico Paranaense30189366
    Atletico Paranaense sit in position 4, while Flamengo sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Atletico Paranaense Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
    60%Flamengo Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Atletico Paranaense sit at 20% and Flamengo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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